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Kyo026
Sep 2, 2021 5:11 PM

BTC Short

Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBitstamp

Description

1Y
RSI is trending down and almost oversold.
MFI is trending down.

5Y
RSI is overbought.
MFI is trending up, but in an longer downtrend.

ALL
RSI is almost oversold.
MFI is trending down.


Notable Dates:
2011 about 95% correction from top.
2013 about 84% correction from top.
2017 about 84% correction from top.

A Wycoff Distribution appeared before the most recent drop.

Prediction: I think we can see about a 95% drop from the top around 64,000. That would make the bottom around 3,000, but I think it could overextend. I believe we will see a very deep recession, maybe a depression in the economy and that would make this Bitcoins first experience through one. So I think a greater than 95% correction is possible in this event. Ultimately falling around 1,200 on a support from the start of a run back in March 2017. This is a long term call (longer than a year).

For my educational purpose, not to be used as financial advice.

Comment

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Volume is super low right now.

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More downside coming. 5Y RSI is overbought.

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We have evergrande bankruptcy

cnn.com/2023/08/17/business/evergrande-files-for-bankruptcy/index.html

And an address buying $3 trillion (118,000 btc)

x.com/rovercrc/status/1693892455785955587?s=46&t=R0ivzMnZs2uEIgO9fs-S4Q

Conflicting articles, but we may be looking at a bottom.

Comment

Stoch RSI on the 5 year and ALL timeframe haven’t reversed yet. Until it does it may fall a bit or hold low while RSI plays out.

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Stoch RSI on all timeframes is looking bearish. A correction is coming.
Comments
Kyo026
@andy1234567890123 well look where we are.
Kyo026
@Kyo026, @andy1234567890123 well seems to be moving in the right direction.
Kyo026
For anyone wanting to see who he really is.

andy1234567890123
At what price does this analysis become invalid?
Kyo026
@andy1234567890123, The market hasn't played out yet, patience.
andy1234567890123
@Kyo026, yes I know because it is at ath but do you or do you not have a preset invalidation level?
Kyo026
@andy1234567890123, The market will prove the chart valid or not.
andy1234567890123
@Kyo026, it's a simple question so I guess you don't have a stop/invalidation level. I thought all good risk managers have one. I guess not.
Kyo026
@andy1234567890123, lol, someone is a bit nickered. Like I said (In another post), I make calls to get into better positions (if short), so I don't need a stop/invalidation level in this instance.
andy1234567890123
@Kyo026, that's all I asked in the beginning "do you have an invalidation level or not". A simple yes or no would suffice. Like in another post about whether you have enabled a TV feature or not, a simple yes or no would suffice. Instead you seem to answer a question with a question. Perhaps, you don't want others to know you don't have any active trades and don't have invalidation levels...I wonder why that might be. I'll let others decide. Good day.
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