Hello All,
I haven't posted an idea in a while. I've been working my trades hard ... averaging my base costs down to really good levels. My strategy has been to accumulate and work those base costs down to prepare for a bull run.
OK, here is what I see ... based on sub-wave count, and some possible interpretations ...
Blue wave in essence means the inverse head-and-shoulders you are hearing about from everywhere actually breaks out. This would almost certainly mark an end to the mid-term correction ... although I don't think we have hit the absolute bottom yet.
Red wave basically assumes we continue the pattern we've seen for months, being a double top and down. Bears are a bit worn out, so I see a possible correction somewhere between 5k and 5.4k ... less than that, although not impossible, will surprise me. Remember I am talking about a very local, short term bottom ... not the absolute bottom. I do feel the bears need to rest and allow the bulls to profit take before they can take BTC down to the final level ... which I believe will come in 6 to 8 weeks at around 4k to 4.5k.
Anyhow, this is a KEY point. We could break out ... and we could drop. My position is approximately 50% coin, 50% cash. No leverage. All my coin positions are close to or below the bottoms (sold partial positions to work base cost below lowest point on chart) over the past 4 weeks ... so I'm not afraid to hold. If we do dip to 5k, I'll add up to 1x leverage. Below 5k ... I'll start adding leverage. If we do go up instead, I have 50% coin and can decide where to cash out.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial/investment/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
I haven't posted an idea in a while. I've been working my trades hard ... averaging my base costs down to really good levels. My strategy has been to accumulate and work those base costs down to prepare for a bull run.
OK, here is what I see ... based on sub-wave count, and some possible interpretations ...
Blue wave in essence means the inverse head-and-shoulders you are hearing about from everywhere actually breaks out. This would almost certainly mark an end to the mid-term correction ... although I don't think we have hit the absolute bottom yet.
Red wave basically assumes we continue the pattern we've seen for months, being a double top and down. Bears are a bit worn out, so I see a possible correction somewhere between 5k and 5.4k ... less than that, although not impossible, will surprise me. Remember I am talking about a very local, short term bottom ... not the absolute bottom. I do feel the bears need to rest and allow the bulls to profit take before they can take BTC down to the final level ... which I believe will come in 6 to 8 weeks at around 4k to 4.5k.
Anyhow, this is a KEY point. We could break out ... and we could drop. My position is approximately 50% coin, 50% cash. No leverage. All my coin positions are close to or below the bottoms (sold partial positions to work base cost below lowest point on chart) over the past 4 weeks ... so I'm not afraid to hold. If we do dip to 5k, I'll add up to 1x leverage. Below 5k ... I'll start adding leverage. If we do go up instead, I have 50% coin and can decide where to cash out.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial/investment/trading decisions. For educational purposes only.
Comment:
Seems like blue wave almost finished playing out. Here's is the latest plot. Two things to consider ... will we undeniably cross the resistance at 7800 to 8000? That would be a 2nd major resistance crushed, and certainly hurt bears' chances. If we can't get past this zone, only one way to go.
Second is what will the SEC ETF news bring ... and how will the market react just before and after the news comes out (anticipated Aug 16)?
Second is what will the SEC ETF news bring ... and how will the market react just before and after the news comes out (anticipated Aug 16)?
Also I would like to point out ... the red line is NOT over ... check this, see the bold green dashed lines ... see that expanding wedge? We just hit the top of it ... we are still in fact controlled by it.