What to expect if Bitcoin keeps mimicking NASDAQ

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So far, the resemblances between the NASDAQ crash and the current Bitcoin crash are numerous:
- Disruptive technology in a speculative bubble.
- Typical bubble burst double top crash (other charts very similar are the Dow Jones crash of 1929, or the uranium chart more recently)
- Ocean of worthless copycats coins based on blockchain technology, surfing on the hype.
- Companies shares price quadrupling in 2 days after adding blockchain to their name (kodak), same as dotcom back then.
- People going into debt, selling their houses, to buy bitcoin at the pic...

And then, chart wise se saw:

- A 50% bounce after a 70% correction (same as in nasdaq)

- Number of days between 2 tops during nasdaq crash was 161 days
- Number of days between 2 tops during Bitcoin crash was 21 days
- Ratio = 21/161 = 0.13
- Number of days between top and 70% correction in nasdaq: 378 days
- Estimated number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin: 0.13x378 = 49 days
- Real number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin:51 days ~ 49 days -> this method seems to indicate that we are following nasdaq not only for the correction scale in price, but also for the correction timing.

I expended this method to estimate, price and time wise, where the bitcoin should be in the coming days/weeks if we keep following what the nasdaq did back in 2000, and you can see the result on the graph.

If we keep following nasdaq, the second bottom should be on 26/02 at 4580.
+1 Reply
A good idea! Continue to update!)
+1 Reply
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