Question is: do we get a crash together with stocks near EOY? Will BTCUSD decouple significantly and start outperforming tech stocks? I suspect we might start to see inflation expectations increase substantially as economic activity resumes across the globe, people certainly are saturated with the whole COVID situation, and even scientists from the World Health Organization doubt the lock downs are a good solution for the pandemic, as economic damage caused by it vastly outsizes the human lives the pandemic itself would cost if restrictions were lifted.
I can smell a significant paradigm shift, if this takes place, where big ongoing trends would reverse, like the performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks, commodities vs stocks, interest rates trending down, and inflation being muted. An interesting trade to ride this juncture is to buy cryptocurrencies when viable. That said, this was an obvious trade many followed, but recent bouts of weakness likely shook most people out before the PYPL news came out. I'm keen on seeing what the US launch brings forth, since the recent surge in prices has a lot to do with it (together with companies acquiring Bitcoin for their treasuries as a hedge for inflation should it manifest itself).
Tech stocks are a huge part of the S&P500 index price movement, and since the index suggests it is entering a decade long sideways bear market akin to 2000 to 2009, I would be hesitant to blindly buy and hold overvalued stocks in this environment. We do need Bitcoin to decouple from this if we expect a major trend, else it might be gridlocked in a constant sideways range for ages to come.
I'm open to substantial declines taking place after this strength fades, and specially if PYPL's new feature disappoints like Bakkt futures initially did (Back then people were expecting Libra and Bakkt to generate tremendous interest and buying pressure in Bitcoin, which never happened and led to a long and brutal sideways bear market until March 2020).
This scenario is invalidated if we go below $9132.96-9049.54, else expect a relatively steady uptrend over the long haul. Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
The last daily signal failed here, the stock market rout is affecting #BTC it seems. This long term forecast might be valid still, but perhaps we go for a correction or consolidation here for a few days. Weekly trend should go higher, else we might remain range bound (target was 14430 within a few weeks). The long term signal is invalid if below 9132 zone.
Comment
⋅
Good action so far, it was hard to hold on to it but we are doing very well here, getting more and more confirmation of a long term trend, with sentiment being a massive wall of worry all the way up into a new ATH soon. I'd buy any dips going forward.
Comment
⋅
I think we likely go higher here before retracing judging by technicals and sentiment. We have excellent news from PYPL, demand is impressive, yet somehow most people either already sold, are scared, expect a drop under 14k to buy/buy back, or call for a top now. Clearly, long term bullish Wall of Worry from hell effect.
Comment
⋅
Comment
⋅
Looks like we already peaked and will go sideways here:
Comment
⋅
Looks like we will go higher first, then sideways.
Comment
⋅
Back to sideways thesis:
Comment
⋅
Seems like correction is over: At least the downside is, now will likely move higher then gyrate sideways for a while until it is accumulated enough to trend.
Comment
⋅
Long term target #1 hit, #2 comes next, probably way before May 2022. We could go even higher if it hits target #2 faster than ETA.
Trade closed manually
⋅
There's a chance the market topped long term...Will monitor closely. Hedged a bit higher.
Comment
⋅
Judging by the move after my last update, I'd say it topped for good.
Glad to see you back on board, thanks for sharing your analysis. This time looks no different - macro wise- for bitcoin. Bakkt launch and paypal news have fundamentally different timing - I agree that we were overtly positive about bakkt and hoped it would break the macro crypto cycle - in hindsight it didn,t but the macro cycles for bitcoin seem validated, lets hope we can keep this true for at least another cycle before it gets mainstream and we miss the obvious positioning in the next 5 years.
muqeetforex
⋅
20k high
TradesBySheriff
⋅
lets see this get right!
gt3verse
⋅
Nice chart but your timeframe is too long
Saeed966
⋅
Bitcoin was clearly rising without a break, so it would take off more and more
Paisleyred
⋅
great content, thanks
PolarHusk
⋅
Looks bullish on the 2-month chart. 🐻❄️🙏😊😃
Tradelive
⋅
Cool! Thanks for the update
irfanali741
⋅
your idea amazing, i love to see it, and shocked to see also some ALT's chart on Ivan profile, Good brother.
irfanali741
⋅
when the retrace possible for 14K OR 16K, BTC goes from 12k to 18K without a correct on 3D chart. Every candle going green green.