Bitcoin is currently widely claimed as back to the bull market by popular youtubers that are calling the bottom and that are 100% long. On top of that we have a bubble popping out with a boom of Glassnode analysts selling millions of newsletters with in-chain data that everyone sees. "Institutions are buying/accumulating"
This is alarming to me.
I tend to believe that Price (and volumes) is truth. That is why I'm also a big of Friedrich Hayek's "The Use of Knowledge in Society" where he notes the importance of the Price System in a decentralised network.
Bitcoin still trading bellow the 47k range and above 35k which to me signal we are in neutral territory. But I have reason to change my stance and become more bearish because of weird price action and volumes coming out of spot and forward contract futures.
Check the video for my latest thoughts and remember that his is all my subjective interpretation. Use information in the video to help develop your own critical around these things. It's not about being contrarian or just follow what everyone (including me) says but to arm yourself with mental models. Navigate trough uncertainty or probability and develop your own thesis and sub-consequent plan.
Comment
⋅
OK - I changed my mind. Been looking into orderbooks and spot volumes. I do not think we are in a bull trap anymore. Sure we may see some pullback at 48k but I also now see the possibility to see a 47-49k range consolidation as shorts pile in.
Swaps been surprising trending more negative which implies bullishness.
So. I think I made mistake in this video's assessment of volumes speically on CME/BAKKT.
Those volumes are very low and are more likely to actually be speculative longs.
I would aggree with you, especially keeping in mind these crazy price up movements. So keep SL's tight and good luck for all of us
D7R
⋅
@editorcsss, paradoxically tight stop losses may destroy your account.
WillGood
⋅
Appreciate you sharing your thoughts in this crazy market! It definitely seems like the market makers are trying to FOMO people in at this price point before dropping it again. Seeing the divergence in higher prices but lower volume and dropping RSI is pretty telling. Time will tell!
D7R
⋅
@WillGood, that RSI on the monthly is particularly concerning are so are volumes across the board.
ninja_xx
⋅
Thank you for your solid analysis and perspective!