Bitcoin - Channel Formation Still Intact

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I'm noticing a lot of short term 4 hour chart analysis of Bitcoin in the last day or two trying to find patterns, and the general consensus is all over the place - half are up, half are down, and the remainder have no idea so they chart an up scenario and a down scenario.

Look at the long term chart. I published this chart a month ago and the analysis still holds true. Bitcoin has been trending in a upward logarithmic channel since January, 2017. If you throw out the December, 2017 to January, 2018 data, the channel still works. You can see BTC bounced off of the bottom of the channel around $6k on February 5, 2018 - then it bounced off of the channel again on March 18, 2018. The channel still stands.

The difficulty comes in what happens in the middle of the channel. I drew a Fib retracement from the September low to December high and BTC has strong resistance on the 0.5 Fib line around $11,800 - it has hit it twice and bounced down.

Short term prediction is that BTC will stay within channel and will reach $11,800 again. If BTC can break $11,800 - it will likely continue upwards within the channel - if it bounces off $11,800, it will likely languish below that level until the middle of May, in which case it must either break the channel to the downside, or break $11,800 to the upside, and continue within the channel.
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