Just looking back on history, I see an ABCDE wave with 3 lows. Sometimes history repeats itself. Wouldn't be the first time. Just another possibility of the corrective trend we are in right now. If this is the case then we are in for another low point (Which holds true to the general 1st scenario I posted), and it touches the 38.2% Fib retracement. I doubt we are going to $1,900 in the $5,000 peak though. Probably near the 50%, or so. Around $2,500-$2,700.
Just another idea I had. I try to figure out many possible scenarios. Essentially this is gambling in my opinion, but the odds are much better.