BTC & co - why TA doesn`t work anymore

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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For the past days I have been watching the markets with great interest since I got a feeling there is something else going on, besides what meets the eye. So here are some thoughts about where BTC and all the major cryptos are now and why I believe we are looking at a controlled market where TA alone doesn`t work anymore.

First of all, TA works on the assumption that the market under scrutiny is big enough to have liquidity in order to create a mass-scale crowd-like behavior. This is the basis of TA. It needs a lot of traders, of all sizes and flavors who place a lot of orders, apparently in an orderly fashion, based on their expectations about the price of an asset which should reflect their expectation in regards to the underlying value of this asset at a certain moment in time. All the "classic" assets are in a known quantity which does not fluctuate unless extraordinary conditions happen and at those points the asset is actually taken off the market until the quantity is known again. In crypto world, this is far from reality.

If we take BTC for example, we have no idea how many BTC are actually on the market or even in circulation. All we have is estimates at best, but even those are hard to find. For sure we don`t know how many are up for trade, this is a fact. Then, we have no idea about how many traders there are and / or the size of their portfolios. We have no idea about the size of their orders either. On top of this, there are a lot of automated trading bots that constantly place and / or cancel orders at random, based on some pre-thought "strategies" of more or less experienced traders.

All the above alter greatly the very basis on which classic TA was constructed and used.

And then it comes the "news" ... the price reaction to good or bad news is extremely fast, like all the traders are watching 24h all the news channels, websites and on-line news feeds and act as soon as something hits the wires, on all exchanges. Since arbitrage is not possible due to the long time it takes to transfer BTCs between exchanges (at least 2-3 hours at best), this seems like an orchestrated symphony of a very few players that have enough BTC and money in their accounts across the exchanges in order to move the price up or down at the same time. Also it seems very strange that bad or good news come exactly at the precise moment when the prices were following a classic pattern, like EW, H&S , bats, etc. just to conveniently alter the predicted formation.
To me, all those aspects point to a controlled market already, where there is no chance at all to use TA alone in order to initiate, close or predict any kind of position at any given moment in the present, not to mention the future.

Basically, we are looking at a big casino where the house always wins, just that we don`t know who the house is.

Any thoughts, comments, ideas are more than welcome. Thank you

PS: if you look at other great traders ideas posted for the past two weeks, they were all correct until a point when they turned to be wrong or they were wrong until they turned correct later on. Makes you think how all of them missed what is going on.
Comment: Thank you all who took time to post their opinions; greatly appreciated and very interesting comments. Please do keep them coming
$10,400,00.00 BTC sold in 15 min? thoughts guys?
SuperMario4 SuperMario4
@SuperMario4, i mean $10,400,000 million worth of BTC sold in 15 min
SuperMario4 SuperMario4
@SuperMario4, someone is trying to break that H&S neck, for it to go lower, and invalidate the overall inverse H&S, right?
+1 Reply
Haceru SuperMario4
@SuperMario4, looks like it ... at least to change the overall behavior once a lot of people will be in, exactly on the basis of a inversed H&S
Haceru SuperMario4
@SuperMario4, and here is the "picture" as well, for the other readers:
I think that at this point its pretty obvious that its manipulated. News dont appear suddenly at the right time, either being bad or good. The past week we had good news and the price slowly increased, but volume is dying.
Now, about who is the "house". It can be anyone, from whales, exchanges, banks ( YES BANKS), and even big institutions and who knows what else. They make enough to have some extra money to spare and create fake bad news or giving false hope.

But honestly, who cares who is the house? If you have learnt the rules of the game then play accordingly, dont wait for the rules to change in your favor.

And for those of you that are "HODLERs" , im sorry. You had your year in 2017. Laying back and making free money wont work as EFFECTIVELY as it did last year. Of course, it might turn out to be the same in the end, but do you have the mental power to stay strong and wait? Or are you gonna be turned into food for the big dogs? For your own good, please, understand that the game has changed.

About TA, it actually works up to some point, EW is a perfect example, but given how "emotional" the marker is, the "extreme" targets are not that extreme after all. Now, if you draw a few lines on a BIGGER time frame chart and expect the price to follow that, think again, because the market maker is steps ahead of that. Yes there are areas of strong support, MAs that act as support etc etc.

If you want to succeed more keep your expectations low and be prepeared for every possibility, dont just focus on what you see. Fortunately, there are a lot of good analists here to show you what you DONT SEE.

This is not a moon mission anymore. Is a harsh landing for getting more fuel.
+3 Reply
@Acel, great comment, thank you for it. I hope everyone reads it and more important, understands it
+2 Reply
Well, for me it is rather contrary. BTC and crypto markets for me seem to be very predictable and very much according to the rules I follow (ie. Elliott Waves and others), but indicator based strategies I use in Forex work in crypto 50% of the time at most. On 14 December, I have made thorough analysis of BTC and knew that it will fall around 20k and my target for fall was around 6 thousand back then. In this time, BTC has been following the rules of Elliott Wave corrective pattern very closely. In my post about BTC I've already made around 10 perdictions about movement of price and the top and bottom levels - and I was right almost every time. So in crypto analysis - I stick to the very basics, Elliott waves, Fibo and classical patterns. And it works very well. :)

I do not think that crypto is casino - but it is very, very, very emotional market - because of that it can be very surprising at times, but still predictable. You wrote:
'"PS: if you look at other great traders ideas posted for the past two weeks, they were all correct until a point when they turned to be wrong or they were wrong until they turned correct later on. Makes you think how all of them missed what is going on." - since I have thought about the possibility of fall when BTC reaches around 20k, I have never been surprised by the price movement. Which makes me really glad. :)
But the problem is that forex is my main market, and I wish I could read it half as well as I can do it with crypto. :P
+1 Reply
Haceru thewhitefox
@thewhitefox, thank you for your comment, very much appreciated; glad it works for you, hope it stays the same. While I do agree that it was predictable, my point is that two weeks ago something changed. Until then, you are right, classic patterns, EW were OK. Not anymore, if you ask me. But thanks again
+2 Reply
@Haceru, Yes, that is also my impression - it has become increasingly more difficult. I think that the farther away the correction is from its impulse, the more 'choppy' and unpredictable it is.
Because of that I will be doing some final trades with crypto and then move entirely to other assets. Keep up the good work.
+1 Reply
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