As showed in the post of yesterday, Bitcoin created the beginning of a Wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin dipped a little below the second wave target, however, finding support on the 21MA of the 3h chart.
Overnight it followed up on the 3rd wave of elliot with a 4hour consolidation around the .618 fibonacci retracement. Waiting for the small pullback to confirm the support on the .618 and then continuing to the top resistance at 42,300.
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The first resistance line of the Wyckoff model (~40,500) is supported by the 200 Daily Moving Average in combination with the 2.272 fibonacci extension from the high of dec 2017 to the low of dec 2018. A break of both these levels would likely result into a rapid increase and a test of the second resistance level of Wyckoff at ~42,300.
Some say this is accumulation, others say this is distribution...pure randomness
DaanVerbeek
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@johnsmith129, Thanks for your thoughts, I see that I made a mistake in the title. Distribution is normally when the pattern is entered form an uptrend and accumulation is when it is entered with a downtrend.
@coinbitme, A little however it could be that this is just an extension of the fourth wave. Will give an update in a bit
morbidPerson16117
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Still on track in your opinion?
morbidPerson16117
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Are we still on track? Seems its going lower than 39k atm
DaanVerbeek
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@morbidPerson16117, I was a few hours of with the peak of today so it looks like the 4th wave is also delayed and extended to the fib .382. We are still testing the 200MA 1H, a full close below it will indicate a move further downwards. Till this happens I'm quite convinced that we are still on track.
morbidPerson16117
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@DaanVerbeek, Cool! So low should happen in the weekend according timeframe? Others say it will endure a few weeks. What are your thoughts?
DaanVerbeek
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@morbidPerson16117, Yes I think it is likely to happen during the weekend or shortly after it since it seems that my waves are a little of time. The timeframe is a lot smaller than for stocks, this due the extreme volatility compared to stocks which makes it more easy to reach targets.
However it is also possible that we are still in the extension of the fourth wave and that we are still going to see a test of the first resistance at ~40,500. Next to this it is also possible that we are switching from schematic 1 to schematic 2 which is less volatile and is more of a trading range from mid-phase B throughout phase C.