This one is dicey. High timeframe Indicators and Oscillators are useless from the consolidation range until we start printing bigger candles in a few weeks so I am sticking to pure Fibonacci levels and horizontal support\resistance levels.
Due to our buildup, expect a big move out of this one. 12hr\daily Bollinger Band supersqueezes are nothing to bat an eye at.
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On the Bullish side we could cross many of the daily indicators, and with us forming a VERY nice BBand squeeze we should be looking at a 25% move in whichever direction it breaks out in. OTE short will be our first stop, but it easily could repeat the $475 rally and bring us to our upper targets if market makers decide to pump news and other things to prop the market up.
On the bearish side we are sliding down this pennant in a downward bias, with our floor only being shown by $210 after we have faked out the bottom of pennant consolidation. Triangle trendlines are no longer strongly guiding us. Again fibanachi extensions guide our targets along with a ultimate low in the 120's in line with the left side of the chart where we spent over a month at those prices (It's when the Silk Road crashed the price). Less indicators show our current bearish outlook so it will be more difficult to spot a target if we do resolve to the downside.
Let me know what you think! Comments are much appreciated.
Oh, and there is a small chance we can do a fakeout in either direction. Boy that would suck.
Comments
nicomend
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Great post. But I guess my question is: what is your setup? How to play it if bull and how to play it if bear? Entry points? Stops?
Burrmarket
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Like a boss.
Nuseii
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Great view of the two possibilities, and i enjoy that you state the downward bias, which i believe is important to have when factoring things in. I think anyone heavily relying on indicators in a precarious situation like this will find themselves wishing they leaned more on price-action and fibonacci's.
See you at the break.
Tin.Foil
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I've been counting on a fakeout to 160, before we climb to 320-360ish for a new level and breakout of the year long downtrend. I agree, it's going to be a week or so before we reach targets and the big move. I'm eyeing Chinese New Year, Feb 19th.