The monthly just printed a spinning top after a long uptrend.
My contention for a long time has been that we are at time period similar to April 2013, and the atmosphere in bitcoin seems to support that. So much uncertainty in the air as I have spoken about. Of course, things can change fast, if it became apparent or clear that either a. no contentious HF is coming to btc any time soon or b. common sense will prevail and segwit will get activated in btc …then okay that would be super bullish.
Taking a look at the chart, a head and shoulders pattern has begun to emerge, and yes these patterns can be unreliable until confirmed, but this is not the only point of data I am working off of. You can take a look at my linked past charts to see how I a have come to my conclusions.
Anyway, you can note what appears to be standard 5 wave EW pattern down, and then a-b-c correction up. But c may already be complete judging by the bearish divergence that is shown on both stoch and RSI. MACD histogram is going up but yet we are still below the zero line, for now at least. Indicators shmindicators right? Lets look at volume. I think what jumped out to me a long time ago, is that we had much less volume on what would be the head of this pattern than the initial high for the left shoulder. Which is definitely an early sign of this pattern. And now, as we have rose for the potential right shoulder, there does not seem to be much volume, its meh, at least for now.
I like to watch the 4h as well for a more detailed view, which is also looking bearish:
As i’ve talked about the in the past, the 50,100 ma cross has been a good signal. For me to change my mind on bitcoin I would probably have to see a. 50 cross back over the 100 (beware of whipsaws) and b. the price itself, on the 1d chart, break back above the 50 MA. If those two things were to happen, okay that would be pretty damn bullish.
Anyway, that’s my quick synopsis. To me this looks like a bearish picture, when combined with the monthly chart and everything that is happening in bitcoin. There is certainly a bull case to be made as well, but given the fundamentals, I don’t buy it, at least not yet.
Gluck in your trades.
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If the neckline breaks, here are some good targets:
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Price meeting resistance from the 618 fib now...it did manage to make it above the 50 MA which is pretty bullish but can it remain above it or will it struggle now and fall below? If it can hang above that would be bullish, but I will believe it when I see it.
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In addition to .618 fib, and 50 ma territory, there is also a rising wedge on the 4h: And the MACD on the 1d is trying to make it back above the zero line. It has been above for this whole time, except for a brief time during the bfx hack, but quickly made it back above. So the question is, was this last dip like the bfx hack...or is a reversal in store. Soon we should find out, seems we are at a pivotal point.
Fell out of the wedge...daily is flirting with falling below the 50 MA...
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Also forgot to add the news about Viabtc's new exchange...all the more validation of this coup attempt on bitcoin.
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Looks like a rising wedge on the 4h: Is that all she wrote? I mean, the price has surprisingly broken through multiple levels of key resistance, but it could just be the old market inflicting the most pain on the most participants axiom. Should be interesting to see if we'll remain the old ATH of 1160, above the 50 MA on the daily.
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To me this rally is way overextended, just inflicting the most pain on the most participants, bear divs everywhere. At the 78 fib now. Could we go parabolic? Sure. I think its very unlikely from here though. A better question to me would be when this loses steam, do we dump hard and break the 50, 100 MA's, 618 fib, 50 fib, etc? Or do we just make them support again before going higher. Time will tell.
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TomZarebczan
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Thanks for the analysis.
01sasa10
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@btc_joe .. I have some ETH and lTC stash. I can see with a rising BTC, both are falling.. are you long on BTC or short? Need to know if I shall exit? Thank you again for all your charts!
ltc-joe
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@01sasa10, Hey man, i'm short btc and eth long ltc...but i would be careful basing your decisions solely on others : ) Seeing others opinions, discussing, etc is a good tool, but definitely gotta make some decisions for yourself. At any given time i can find you a really good trader is who is bearish on x and a really good one who is bullish on x :) And further, both can even be right, but be trading different time frames etc
UnknownUnicorn902959
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5 of 1 is not an impulse! a zigzag. I am not looking further, the structure is incorrect, assumptions also.
UnknownUnicorn902959
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oh no, the 3rd it's even worse, but how about 3of 3 of 5 ! 3 smaller than 1 and 5, hell no!
your counting is awfull
ltc-joe
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@Eudoxiu, Thanks for your comment! It's a good thing EW is only but a tiny part of my analysis so doesn't make much difference to me. Just so I can learn though, since you must be an expert, why is it impossible that wave 1 can extend? And also i'm not sure what you mean about about 3 being smaller than 1 and 5...are you trying to tell me I should use that bs volatility from the etf rejection as opposed to the close of the candle?
ltc-joe
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@Eudoxiu, *excuse me, not extend, but why is it impossible that it's an impulsive wave, you are saying b/c my 5th wave is corrective in nature?
ltc-joe
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@btc_joe, If that's what you're getting at, then that makes sense. But again, not really an essential part of my analysis.
UnknownUnicorn902959
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@btc_joe, your 5th is a correction wave, also 3rd (with its 3rd short , 2and 4 overlapping)
UnknownUnicorn902959
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2 of 5 could negate all your count bcs its going past the start of 1...