The accumulation phase is nearly over. I doubt you will ever see sub 200 ever again. It is important for investors and traders to know which phase the market is at to position yourself correctly.
I am a bit shocked by the the comments to 100ks charts. This chart is essentially a regurgitation of what has already happened in previous sub cycles. Yet, everyone is basically saying that he is smoking crack even though the fundamental math behind these cycles is there. If you don't believe in bitcoin, then that is a different story. Press it here. Press it at 152 and maybe buy it back at 63. If you do believe in bitcoin but are wary of something better coming down the pipe, there is still room for the above. If you are just a technical trader and don't care either way, then I would be very cautious about pressing these levels with monthly stochastic (yes that piece of dog doo) flat lining at 16 or below for 5.5 months now unless bitcoin is crap.... especially given past structural cycles. So yes the bulls have had their since the beginning. The bears have had their say (even the bitcoin believers) since the beginning. Both have done well given the right entry points. As a bitcoin enthusiast and investor and overall mostly bear trader (in other products), nothing on the charts tells me to sell it aggressively here for size. As Technologics says, this is what history is telling me. Not with the Saudi National guard entering Yemen. Not with Bunds being the short of a lifetime. Not with China's first state owned default and most importantly NOT WITH SAUDIS TALKING TO CHINA ABOUT BENCHMARKING OIL TO YUAN INSTEAD OF DOLLAR. The amount of Longs the Bull whales have amassed in the above accumulation phase won't be even close to enough and we will most likely see (unless bitcoin is just crap) yet another phase change to the upside.
oldstout
⋅
lol, sorry but this is worthless pseudo analysis. this is just todamoon!
LMAO_AT_BagHODLers
⋅
Dude.. do you ever take pause to evaluate why you're consistently wrong?
Why bother posting these daily ridiculous permabull charts when you're just making a laughing stock of yourself and deluding other shitcoiners with your bullshit rationales?
Oh wait, it's probably because you're a Bitcoin bagHODLer. lol.
Sorry for ur loss.
technologics
⋅
We are taking a pause. You can divide history in fractions and history repeats. The period okt - dec 14 equals jan-april 15. First target is $150 and even sub 100 is in the charts. The longer the pause the harder the knock down. The direction is still very bearish. More downside to come. It is important to take history in account. Take advantage of it.
rivet.popper
⋅
A pause before what? Are you saying we'll be going down hard again before we enter the bull phase?
technologics
⋅
Yes, a pause before a giant breakdown. Intrinsic value of cryptocurrency Bitcoin is only $38, cfr credit card payments. There are not more merchants that accept Bitcoin, but less. They are disappointed. The technology bitcoin is a revolutionary invention. Bitcoin is overvalued. Downtrend is still intact.
rivet.popper
⋅
I didn't understand the intrinsic value calculation you used. Why would cc payments be a comparable value for BTC, since there are so many more factors that go into its price, such as mining costs, dollar fx values compared to other fiat currencies, enormous VC funding, ETF launches and its introduction to institutional investors as a safe haven comparable to gold?
Macainian
⋅
Do yourself a favor rivet and don't follow user100000's charts. His charts are always bullish despite constantly going down. I'm not saying it won't go up again, just that user100000 WILL say that no matter what. If you want to follow someone that knows what he's talking about, follow 4xForecaster. His forecasts are usually medium to long term, but I guarantee you will not only be more successful just by following his advice, but you will learn the techniques he uses to come up with his charts.
The charts that 4xForecaster is using right now are:
Please note that these charts at first glance may seem contradictory, but in fact, they are not. To jump in and sum up what he is saying, the price is going up in the short term to the 260 mark and possibly a little higher, but will make a turn back to the downside to 175ish at which point 4xForecaster doesn't have anything to say about that point yet, but in the long term, it is heading down to mid 90s and then possibly to upper 60s.
That is basically a summary of what 4xForecaster is saying right now. He has made no predictions past that. To give a time perspective (though note that this is my speculation based on past experience of looking at 4xForecaster's charts), it will probably hit 260 within 2 weeks, 175 within 2 months, and mid 90s within 3 or 4 months.
Macainian
⋅
Oh and note that 2 of his charts are based in CNY not USD, but just multiply by roughly .16 and you will get USD.