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AlanSantana
Jan 1, 2023 7:13 PM

🅱️ (₿) 4.5 Months Later Bitcoin... Long

Bitcoin / DollarBitfinex

Description

Bitcoin hasn't produced a single bounce in more than 4.5 months... This is odd behaviour... Get ready for change.

Another of the classic yet very strong signals we all are familiar with is the divergence between an asset and oscillator.

Bitcoin capitulated after April 2022 to hit a low at $17,605 on 18-June same year...

A small bounce took place that ended mid-August and then we had a lower low that is very weak and looks like a truncated fifth.

Its been almost 140 days since the last bounce/relief rally and nothing bullish we've seen.

The trading volume is leaning towards green, notice 22, 26-Sept...
The lower lows in November have lower volume than May/June...

These signals point to bullish accumulation (big green bars) and bearish trend weakening (smaller and smaller red volume bars)...

Finally, here is the RSI...


- The lowest point was hit 190 days ago, in June.
- Then we have an ascending channel, higher lows and higher highs.

This marks a strong bullish divergence with bitcoin and again, the trading volume has become really low...

When volume drops to a halt, to almost zero then a new and strong move is about to show up.

With the bullish divergence in play and the rest of the signals mentioned above... We are obviously betting higher but...

It can all change within a minute, a day, a second...
Whatever happens is for the market to decide... we READ THE CHART!

We have a bullish bias in place.

Namaste.
Comments
FLASHGORDON10
Not too much talk math here…you normally do better than this. Trend is down and no sign of strength. Everything you said confirmed another leg down probably 2. After the 12345 wave I see another abc forming and my target from June according to Fibonacci is 8800 for a bottom. 17 won’t be broke but it is was better believe I’m loading up all shorts on alts again revise they always take the beat down when the wave collapses. I’ll send you a chart on the volume. It’s my area of expertise. Volume tells the true story behind smart money concepts.
AlanSantana
@FLASHGORDON10, Please send... I like to read volume also.

I don't see how everything I said leads to another drop but the bullish divergence and lowering bear volume are signals in favor of the bulls.
Thnacks
So are you saying the price will be going to test the 1.618 fib or is there a 5 wave move to the upside?

Also how do you determine the 5 wave move?
AlanSantana
@Thnacks, A 5th wave of the bearish impulse that started in November 2021.

There is potential for a strong bounce now but the final target is not clear to me at this point.
The analysis main message is about the potential bullish wave that is about to show up.
Thnacks
@AlanSantana, So more or less a relief rally to around 30 then another leg down?
AlanSantana
@Thnacks, Yes.
Thnacks
@AlanSantana, thank you for your responses
AlanSantana
@Thnacks, My pleasure. I am always around just in case you want to chat some more...

Thanks for your support.

Namaste.
day0
my timeline is Q1 & Q2 is bear and Q3 & Q4 is slightly bull. (both most stocks & BTC)
AlanSantana
@day0, That sounds good, I think its probable but Q1 some sort of bullish action expected here... Q1 slightly bullish, Q2 bearish and the same for Q3/4.

We are looking for a bottom around June/July 2023 for the stocks.
Bitcoin obviously a few months earlier.

Thanks for sharing.
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