BTCUSD Falling Wedge Yearly Plan with VPVR Validation

More than any other post I am looking for feedback and comments

I have been tracking a potential falling wedge for a while now and I have been hoping that we would hit resistance again because shorting that would give me the cleanest trade I could hope for on BTCUSD, but the market doesn’t always give you what you want As I have been hunting for a bigger picture I stay away from lower timeframes, including daily charts, and I find myself on the 3D observing the price action dying at the 20 period moving average. I don’t see us breaking through that resistance and so I am setting targets for BTCUSD to bounce off support to close my trades with Bitcoin as a trading pair (primarily ETH/BTC and XRP/BTC) as any bounce of bitcoin takes profits from those trades.

I have the visual range set to January 1st, 2017. If you want to replicate the chart and move it back quarter by quarter you will see that 2017 April 1 and July 1 point of control is 607 (which define the absolute bottom of the wedge) and Sept 30 is 1011, which is practically the same point of control of 1066.

The combination of the VPVR and the wedge suggest areas where the price action will slice right through and areas where the price action will find support and resistance. As the price seems to be dying at the 20 period MA I think the first thing we will see is for the price to slice right through the Low Volume Node and find support on the wedge at the High Volume Node, which defines our green area. The CM_Ultimate has been adjusted to show the 200 Weekly Moving Average and shows we are being compressed between long term support and shorter term resistance.

Assuming we confirm the wedge we have our 4 basic options, in order of least to most to most bearish, (with options 2 and 3 being the most likely)

• We blast through resistance, consolidate, then bull run.
  
• We get a bounce that takes us past the midline into the shorting area where price action falls at resistance.
  
• We have a miserable existence where the price just grinds down along support with a few bounces to the midline of the wedge.
  
• We drop out the bottom of the wedge sometime after we confirm the wedge support of the wedge after a third touch.
  

We have a Low Volume Node around 1370 to 1500 likely the price action will fill. Whether we revisit the point of control of $1066 is anyone’s guess but it is a place we could predict aggressive buying if found as support and massive shorting if we break through, similar to the $6,300 level.

Once we bottom out there will likely be an extended consolidation period. Forecasting the range months in advance is fraught with risk but as we stand with the VPVR we could expect it to fill in Low Volume Nodes. Consolidation Range one is more Likely than consolidation Range 2 presently. But this is all supposition anyway.
If there isn’t any clear signals in between zones I am going to consider them no trade zones. Any buying and shorting should be protected by stop losses, however you want to set them. This chart behooves a lot of patience.

Please read the linked tradingview post where I discuss quantitative tightening and the effect on the global financial system. The instant chart and post accomated another couple of years of quantitative tightening influencing the price of crpyto and other asset classes. I personally beleive that crypto will recover first before any other asset class. Below are two articles about quantitative tighening, and they basically take opposite positions to how they think QT bank note deposits, bonds, and other investments.
www.afr.com/markets/...itch-20190120-h1a9et
www.ft.com/content/8...e9-9e64-d150b3105d21

Comment:

Ok, I found a potential way to make target in the accumulation zone and against the wedge. We have two points of contact against the support and three points of contact against the resistance of a symmetric triangle nested within the falling wedge. Height of the triangle moved to the crux gets us our target, in the blue dashed line. We can see above in black symmetric triangle and dotted lines and slight over-performance got us to our target. The black triangle isn't perfect at resistance but performed well enough that making a falling wedge out of fractal triangles seems like a decent bet.

Comment:

We bounced twice to create the current triangle that is breaking down so I think we will bounce twice again at HVNs for form another triangle that will likely breakdown as well with a final target near 1.2k.