Alternate count (Fixed)

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
276 6
There is a distinct possibility that my preferred count, that wave 4 just ended, is mistaken. Indeed, there is a possibility that wave 1 of the bull market has already completed, and I mistook it for wave 4. If so, the current pullback is wave 2, now tracing is wave C...

Be careful EW traders....
I absolutely see what you are talking about. This blip is precisely the reason I have been holding onto the view that this rally was a wave 4. It looks like an ABC to me too.

But at the same time, I cannot ignore that the rally looks alot like a completed wave 1, already finished. I wish I knew for sure!

All I know for sure is that if the market starts showing strength unbecoming a wave 3 of 5 down, (now due if this is a wave 5 down as I have thought), then I am switching gears in a hurry...
JimFred JimFred
Just a thought ... I know this seems wholly improbable; that it breaks any semblance of symmetry...

But, is it possible, that that blip run to 75, clearly 3 waves up, WAS wave 4, and that the run back to 86, which can be construed as 5 waves, ... WAS wave 5, ending the structure?????

I know this seems quite improbable, given the size of waves 1 ,2 and 3. But is there a rule that says that this is not possible? I don't know of any reason the market CANNOT have done this, even if it seems quite strange to us wave counters....

Again, just a thought...
JimFred JimFred
I just looked at it again - there is no way that can be waves 4 & 5 - that blip remains the powerful clue that this really is still wave 4, and that it is too early to switch to the alternate count. I thank you RyNimDaClem for keeping me on the straight & narrow.
Abandon JimFred
Then what is this?
JimFred Abandon
Short answer is - I don't know. Longer answer is that we are VERY close to a daily close over 100.44. A daily close above that point will mean my preferred count is wrong. If so, I will have no choice but to accept that in all likelihood the bull market has already begun, ~ 7/7
What about the spike on the 6th of July? How does that play into the count?
I've been seeing a lot of this count by many people and just don't understand how no one else sees this as an ABC off the bottom :/
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