beller

New Bitocoin Bubble or Not New Bitcoin Bubble ? Look here..

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
If you are searching for a new Bitcoin             bubble look here:

The bad news is that there isn't a new bubble.

The good news is that you can look at any movement that can produce a new bubble, how ?

The people that are doing the bitcoin             markets are:
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1. Miners, they normally sell bitcoin             after production immediately.
2. Private customer , they buy small quantity of bitcoins             to spend after some time for goods or services.
3. Private Holders, they buy bitcoin             as a investment and hold.
4. Investors, they buy bitcoin             to hold or as liquidity.
5. Commercial seller of goods, they sell bitcoin             received from customers immediately.
6. Others... they buy and sell inside a range of time.. (speculators , ecc             .)


Look at the graph:
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Red line is the "Network Deficit", every time it move down, bitcoin             move up, at the new minimum, it do the maximum of the bubble value, there is also the max activity cost in that moment.
Orange line is the miners's revenue, if a miner is mining, this means they have a revenue otherwise they can switch off the mining action, if they switch off mining the hash rate decrease.
Blue line is the Hash Rate, how much the miners are mining, if it fall the miners are switching off the mine machines.
We are at the 3° generation of mining (called "Asic" mining), after FPGA/GPU mining (2° generation) and CPU             mining(first generation). After asic             generation there isn't new generations, but like PC , they can optimize the process (reduce cost and decrease nm             production of chips or do it in parallel), so it's very difficult to say when this optimizations can have a end..
Finally, violet is the transaction cost, it increase during the maximum activity...


So, where we are ? We are NEUTRAL, i think. There is Nothing evident... all the bitcoin             bought are selled, acitivity is low..

What we need to look at ?

"Network deficit" is the better line to look at, new bottoms can start the bubble.. as alternative we need a strong buy.. from who ?

Statistics are taked from blockchain directly inside tradingview... :-)

~beller
Brilliant work! I'll check it out.
Reply
or the calm before the perfect storm?

waiting on the spark, that's all it's going to take IMO.

just sayin
+1 Reply
wow, didn't know that you can plug Blockchain statistics into tradingview. nice work!
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beller herrschmidt
i have added the script link, with http://www.quandl.com service you can have virtually any data you want..
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Wallstreet money is the only thing that could create a new bitcoin bubble...
Reply
beller kenzboard
Until now, bitcoin bubble is done by the "network deficit", practically, less bitcoin miners = higher bitcoin price because there isn't the down pressure in the sell from miners, on the another side, higher bitcoin price calls again many miners and they contribute for price to come down.. so, follow you the miners! (orange line)
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