I have the last couple of weeks, warned you again and again about extraordinary high manipulation in the Bitcoin-market ( BTC /USD). I received earlier today a link on Twitter to a blog on Steemit, where a guy documents, how a group of whales are discussing, how to manipulate a market.
I therefore decided to spent a lot of time to analyze the last 2 weeks of the BTCUSD-market. I have made a comparison between the last 2 weeks and Bitcoins Price movements in the past and also looked closer in to other traditional markets the last couple of weeks (with lower and higher Market Capitalization).
Let's first define manipulation:
Controlling someone or something to your own advantage, often unfairly or dishonestly. In this case, we are talking about whales with a lot of money (usually at least 5 % of the market) is taking advantage of traders with less money to gain more wealth.
This is only seen from a TA-perspective. I have looked at the 1h BTCUSD chart over 14 days. I have chosen to categorize 3 different ways whales have manipulated the market:
1. Bear traps (yellow circles). To bait traders to go SHORT hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms a downtrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate SHORTS.
2. Bull Traps (red circles). To bait traders to go LONG hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms an uptrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate LONGS.
3. Shake outs (orange magnifying glass). Sudden huge price movements in either direction, WHERE normal TA-principles not necessarily confirms a clear and certain direction. Also with the purpose to liquidate either SHORTS or LONGS to achieve more control in the market.
I have furthermore used the following indicators to confirm a possible manipulation:
- by time (measured and compared to the MA20 )
- The ( )
Summary and conclusion:
1. Take notice of the long period of 14 days, where the not* have been under 50, apart from the times where whales manipulated the market. We only had a period of 15 hours (look at the green ) where it happened. This has never happened in this market before under similar circumstances.
Usually we only see this in parabolic runs over some few days or if we make higher highs and lows in a market, which is going up in bids with not much fluctuations and usually not for that many days in a row.
2. The amount of manipulation is extremely high compared to other periods of 14 days. I have looked into at least 25 different periods of 14 days, and I haven't yet found a period with more manipulation.
3. April the 12th 2018 we had a Bitcoin-record, when it comes to by hour ( was higher than 24 times the MA20) and it appeared after a bear trap.
4. The number of times the Level is above 70 is extremely high compared to a normal period of 14 days and very high to a similar uptrend period.
What we can expect now
As you can see, yesterday was the first time we came under Level 50 again and stayed there without a manipulation, which took us higher. As I told you before, I also compared this situation with 2014, where we saw the crash. If this and the 2014-path continues, I have illustrated on the what we will see.
You can expect that we will continue go lower in price and the stay under 50 (usually around 30-40) and when we try to go above 50 you can expect that it is a bull trap. You also expect regular shake outs, and eventually it can result in a similar crash we saw in 2014.
Let's hope the best for Bitcoin though!
D4 Loves You <3
I would really appreciate A BIG like this time - I spent a lot of time with all the research :)
I also hope Bitcoin will moon ASAP.
What I'm pointing out and proven with this post is, that the last 2 weeks have been extreme compared to earlier and what we normally are seeing.
That's why I also have warned you in every single BTC-chart to be careful with margin trading - and why I also tried to encourage you to look into altcoins.
Also because they simply are doing better than Bitcoin, when there are optimism and belief in the market.
As always: Thanks for all the support and messages on PM. I have so many messages, that I cannot answer all of them. Sorry!
But thanks, guys. I really appreciate it <3
Instead we get out of no where a sick 270 dollars pump in the opposite direction.
- 14 days (all the times we are under RSI Level 50 is caused by normal retrace
- Only few times we have more than level 70 on RSI
- Only 2 times we have more than 3 times MA20 Volume
- No sudden shake outs and huge price movement
- No bear and bull traps
D4 Loves You <3
Please give and LIKE and FOLLOW - Thx Friends :)
A guy said that it was normal to see stuff like this in an accumulation phase, when we are in a tunnel. So here we go. Tunnel and accumulation-phase. This is from 2017.
- No sudden change in an already confirmed direction
- No bear or bull traps
- When we get under RSI 50 it's not due to an unexpected move in the opposite direction, followed up by another change in direction, but just a normal retracement.
- RSI never above 80
My conclusion is still - not to spread FUD! I have proofed to you, that we are in a special situation, where we see an extraordinary high level of whale manipulation.
Therefore: Be careful with margin trading. Whales will probably eat you. I already got a tons of PMs here on TV from people, who told me, that they now better understand why it has been so difficult for them to make profit lately.
You can chose to take my advice or not - I basically don't care. I believe we will eventually go into a phase, where we don't see as much manipulation from the whales as now, and where it will be easier to trade BTC again - especially for inexperienced traders.
D4 Loves You <3
Please hit the LIKE-BUTTON :)
750 dollars price movement in less than 5 minutes!!!
Also do you remember about the warning about bull traps? And when the RSI came over 50. Here you go my ladies, that IS exactly what happened!
Once again: Do NOT margin trade, my friend!
D4 Loves You <3
To begin with you started calling a BTC botton at 4888.. First rule of trading and investing: Calling top or bottons are either made by magicians or gamblers who rely 100% on randomness or luck. As with some very deep kind of analysis it would be possible to predict the price of any security.
When you called for a $4888 BTC I was buying and made a 7500 average. I planed to close this trade at ca. 9500 much before it reached this price since it's a strong resistance level and it made sense to close the trade (sweet 2 tousand points). Does it mean I predicted BTC would go up to 9500 and go down again? No, I just considered 9500 a storng resistance and if BTC went to 10,000 I still would have some BTC to sell, if it deep dived again after 9500 I would have more collateral to buy more and build another positional trade at a lower price considering lower risk levels and blabla. If I don't try to predict and believe in a single future outcome I position myself for multiple kinds of environments..
So I'm the kind of trader who didn't try to predict anything, I just analyse what the most probable scenario is and I built a positional trade and sell according to my plan.. If BTC decided to go either direction I had collateral to either sell more and keep profits or to accumulate more at cheaper prices. Trading is not predicting, it's analizing and positioning oneself acordingly!
Now you are calling for a whale trap since BTC last bearish move.. Only because your "prediction" didn't come true it doesn't mean external sources were guilty as whales fooling around.. It was the forecaster that just wrote a ramdon unforeseeable number.
If you really want to start doing good investments, and maybe some trades every now and then, and become a real better investor start reading good books and teachings like Ben Graham and his value investing teachings, James Metier's Behavioral investing. Otherwise you will be no more than a gambler ;)
And take some more sleep, for the sake of your health.
People need to wake up -- this market is a pure gamble and speculation.
TA really doesn't help you a whole lot. Yes, yes i don't understand TA - blah, blah.
Yes, TA can still somewhat predict the moment, but direction - Oh brother, you better have some tight stops in both directions, because it is really up to the whales.
It is actually worst - exchanges are whales; they know how orders are positioned at any given moment - just think about that for a second.
At some point people will realize all that crap. Moon-ers will sober up, and when only speculators (which never cared about BTC) are left BTC will crash pretty big.
Now come convince me that we're going to the moon, and I'm missing some big $$$$
The people who are hurt by the manipulations are the day traders /TA's.
Anyone who margin trades high leverage needs to be extremely on their game or will get rekt. Period. Gambling on ones inability to perceive the market or outright someone else's is insane. Nothing you charted is a surprise. Literally, none of it. It was all charted in advance. Short squeeze and liquidation reflections at the statistically consistent point of a reversal being ATH shorts (consistent market noob stupidity) in an obvious reversal point of interest is Greed or outright ignorance and learned it as such. Let me guess, you got liquidated and can't cope with it? This site is toxic.... Enjoy your top page Charting guru guys. Smells like that other one in here. lol
Now we retrached ( around 32%) wich is in confluence with a support level from the 19th till the 26th of march.
i really dont see the manipulation here.
My 2 cents is the price gets pumped by the retail traders after a mark up. but at that point the big money have already bought in and they sell to the retail traders because they know its OVERSOLD.
Then the retailers also starting to sell and then the price drops and the big money buys in again.
You can call everything manipulation or just supply and demand.
If there is no supply cause everybody has sold the price shoots up.
If there is no demand cause everybody + their grandmothers has bought, price cant go up anymore right? so it goes down. just simple logic.
I think you analysis just makes people scared to invest, with no solid shocking proof like you stated in the title.
Have a nice day!!