I always advocate: TRADE WHAT YOU SEE NOT WHAT YOU THINK
So let's use our Technical Analysis Skills to OBJECTIVELY analyze and interpret the markets and suspend getting carried away with the news. At the end of the day price action is KING (or QUEEN) and news is incidental.
Today I will teach you 5 ways to read this Bitcoin price and how I SEE the markets OBJECTIVELY rather than emotionally:
1. Measuring the Range from the all time high top of 2Sep to the low of 5Sep we can plot our Fibonacci Levels. Here we see resistance at the 0.618 level (approx 4603) and support above the 0.236 level (let's call it, $4280). The above range (top and bottom of cyan dotted lines) indicates the market is RANGE BOUND between $4603 to $4280 a range of, let's call it $350. That is to say, it is undecided which way it wants to go and the buyers and sellers are currently jostling for power In an uptrend, that can be viewed as a CONSOLIDATION pattern In other words, it is collecting enough energy to make a definite move again.
2. Support is resting on the Kijun Sen (black line) and we have not had a Tenken Sen (pink line) cross below.
3. Looking left (left yellow box) and we see price action resting on an old top, as well as previous support roughly at these prices
4. We remain above the Ichimoku Cloud and EMAs, this still remains a bullish sign
5. The momentum whilst falling still remains confidently above the zero line
So in short, there is nothing to panic about at this stage. The market is testing the upper and lower limits of this RANGE and, until proven otherwise, we must go with the rhythm of the market.
View the markets like a "bucking bronco" it wants to shake off the untrained and uninformed traders by sending false signals so it can trick you only to pass their money to astute traders who have educated themselves to read and interpret technical charts.
In addition, we have our line in the sand of $4,000 and $5,000 to guide us which way the market truly wants to go.
In conclusion, the recent sensational news from China may cause emotional traders to say we are Crashing and let's all sell but there is nothing to indicate that this is a huge selloff and the shorts may get caught like a deer in the headlights.
Now, this could all change if we start breaching this range and testing the $4000 or $5000 mark but for now, we TRADE WHAT WE SEE NOT WHAT WE THINK.
As we I remain bullish, this is a low-risk buying opportunity.
Hope this helps.
Sean Vengan, Professional Trader and Trading Educator
Sean,
IMO, SELL! The chinese announcement is just the beginning. All coins are getting slammed and charts are meaningless. U.S. IMO is next. Don't get stuck losing a lot of money. Get out now.
Article - The Verge
Similar regulation may soon be coming to America, too. This July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned that ICOs were being used to sidestep the law, and last week the agency issued another statement describing coin offerings as “potential scams.”
Jehan Chu, a partner at Kenetic Capital who advises on the sale of tokens, told Bloomberg that China needed to act first “due to its size.” However, he added that today’s news is “somewhat in step with ... what we’re starting to see in other jurisdictions — the short story is we all know regulations are coming.”
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@BigD2017, Not sure if i agree with you there my friend. I still think we have good support at $4,000.
But of course you are entitled to your comments and view and I'm not knocking it.
Take BigD2017 advice if you think he's right.
stefaan
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Mr Vengan,
Is it the same for LTC en ETH? Is this just a tempory sett back?
I see a pattern of highs and lows, and I don't really makes me unhappy, I can make a few small trades, with small risks and make a for me an acceptable profit, but the big ones I'm scared off, (even with the stop losses) I just lost all gains of 2 weeks and more in just an hour.
What the Chinese regulation matters, I don't believe they want that too happen. The leaders off China have so much money themselves that they need something unregulated like cryptomoney to get it safe and fast too any place in the world.
With a possible war in the region it is for people (and leaders) even more intresting to change money into a currency that is nog involved into the conflict and can be transferred to any place in the world without someone can steal it when you are on the run. It would make sense that chinees, koreans and even americans buy crypto to be safe for big inflation when their country gets involves in a war where is nothing to win and with an uncertain outcome of infrastructure, material and human losses.
At this moment I can only understand americans that are living in the hurricane zone, that they pull back a part of their money so they can use it for emmergency situations.
But that doesn't explain a pullback of 15% in value.
just a thought
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@stefaan, Hi Stefann, Your comments I'm sure are valid and insightful but personally, I don't concern myself too much with the news.
My style of trading I just need technical charts. The news for me is incidental.
At this stage, I want to keep it simple and see how the Market reacts to the $4,000 level.
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@stefaan, And yes I believe LTC and ETH will probably follow BTC
Sabibaby
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@stefaan, There has been need of a pull back and breather for the market. I've been watching the total market cap and it just turned around for today. I expect it will go down again tonight and hit a low tomorrow or tuesday and then fasten your seatbelts! This time next week I bet we'll be back up to 180B market cap from the 140 bottom today (I suspect bottom for today but I could be wrong) I don't think the market cap will go below 130B that would be a much bigger pullback!!!
Again all profits and much more of the last 2 days are gone.
atricoz
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Thanks for the analysis, will closely follow the charts.
To all the haters:
When bitcoin fell below 1850 $ this summer, and everyone was claiming the end of Bitcoin, Sean was one of the few saying it was going to bounce back, and setting all the bigger picture to an inverted H&S pattern (bullish). Due lo lack of experience I didn't follow his TA and lost huge amount of money.
I would advise you to think twice before blaming his skills. He may be right or wrong (most of the times I do believe he's right), but you all should keep in mind that you are going to invest and therefore RISK your money due to YOUR decision.
Take Sean's analysis like a (free) opportunity to understand and analyse the charts. If you disagree there's no need to be salty and unpolite, just do not follow this analysis.
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@atricoz, Thank you Altricoz for your comments. I truly appreciate it.
BigD2017
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@atricoz, Sean, No disrespect, but you aren't involved with governmental policy.
IMO, SELL! The chinese announcement is just the beginning. All coins are getting slammed and charts are meaningless. IMO, U.S. is next. Don't get stuck losing a lot of money. Get out now. Bubble is popping - POP!
Article - The Verge
Similar regulation may soon be coming to America, too. This July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned that ICOs were being used to sidestep the law, and last week the agency issued another statement describing coin offerings as “potential scams.”
Jehan Chu, a partner at Kenetic Capital who advises on the sale of tokens, told Bloomberg that China needed to act first “due to its size.” However, he added that today’s news is “somewhat in step with ... what we’re starting to see in other jurisdictions — the short story is we all know regulations are coming.”
IMO, SELL! The chinese announcement is just the beginning. All coins are getting slammed and charts are meaningless. U.S. IMO is next. Don't get stuck losing a lot of money. Get out now.
Article - The Verge
Similar regulation may soon be coming to America, too. This July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) warned that ICOs were being used to sidestep the law, and last week the agency issued another statement describing coin offerings as “potential scams.”
Jehan Chu, a partner at Kenetic Capital who advises on the sale of tokens, told Bloomberg that China needed to act first “due to its size.” However, he added that today’s news is “somewhat in step with ... what we’re starting to see in other jurisdictions — the short story is we all know regulations are coming.”