Bitcoin Flirts With A Breakout. Here's What We Know! (BTC)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC has now gotten back above the top trendline of the descending parallel channel. If you recall from yesterday's analysis, I said "there's still a chance that BTC could rally back above the downtrend channel, to test the 50 EMA from the daily chart (in orange.) However, we're also printing what appears to be a bear flag inside of the downtrend channel." So, the bear flag failed to break down, and BTC has now rallied back above the top of the downtrend channel.
I saw a few comments from people who were rejecting this formation as a channel. I think it's because my previous analyses didn't connect the top trend line to the original touches. Regardless, I will explain why it is definitely a downtrend channel. As you can see on the top trendline, there are two clear touches, where resistance prevented price from moving any higher. On the bottom trendline, you can see that there are also two clear touches, that prevented price from moving any lower. The spread between the top touches and the bottom touches, creates a perfectly parallel channel. Furthermore, there is a clear midline of the channel, which is something I often look for when I am assessing channels. You can see that the dashed midline on this channel has several interactions, all of which are further confirming this as a two part channel.
Most recently, price has been reacting very clearly, with the top of the channel (3.) You can see that we broke above the channel, tried to hold it, and then broke back down. Then, BTC broke back above it, and is currently testing the top of the channel for support. So, price is clearly interacting with a parallel downtrend channel.
Assuming that we hold the top of the channel this time, we should continue higher, to FINALLY test the 50 EMA (in orange.) More specifically, that's the 50 EMA from the daily chart, which is what I'm interested in. This is the four hour chart, so I am using the 300 EMA here, to represent the 50 EMA from the daily. A test of that level would put BTC around $4325.
On the MACD, we can see that momentum is falling after a bearish crossover was formed on the 21st. For price to move higher, let's watch for support on top of the channel, followed by a rise in price and a bullish crossover on the 4 hour MACD. On the other hand, if price falls back into the channel, the bias will return to the downside until BTC can show that it can hold support above it.
Also, I have removed the inverted head and shoulders possibility, because it was a distraction from the primary technical focus, which is the downtrend channel.
Happy Holidays Everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
I saw a few comments from people who were rejecting this formation as a channel. I think it's because my previous analyses didn't connect the top trend line to the original touches. Regardless, I will explain why it is definitely a downtrend channel. As you can see on the top trendline, there are two clear touches, where resistance prevented price from moving any higher. On the bottom trendline, you can see that there are also two clear touches, that prevented price from moving any lower. The spread between the top touches and the bottom touches, creates a perfectly parallel channel. Furthermore, there is a clear midline of the channel, which is something I often look for when I am assessing channels. You can see that the dashed midline on this channel has several interactions, all of which are further confirming this as a two part channel.
Most recently, price has been reacting very clearly, with the top of the channel (3.) You can see that we broke above the channel, tried to hold it, and then broke back down. Then, BTC broke back above it, and is currently testing the top of the channel for support. So, price is clearly interacting with a parallel downtrend channel.
Assuming that we hold the top of the channel this time, we should continue higher, to FINALLY test the 50 EMA (in orange.) More specifically, that's the 50 EMA from the daily chart, which is what I'm interested in. This is the four hour chart, so I am using the 300 EMA here, to represent the 50 EMA from the daily. A test of that level would put BTC around $4325.
On the MACD, we can see that momentum is falling after a bearish crossover was formed on the 21st. For price to move higher, let's watch for support on top of the channel, followed by a rise in price and a bullish crossover on the 4 hour MACD. On the other hand, if price falls back into the channel, the bias will return to the downside until BTC can show that it can hold support above it.
Also, I have removed the inverted head and shoulders possibility, because it was a distraction from the primary technical focus, which is the downtrend channel.
Happy Holidays Everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-