I saw a few comments from people who were rejecting this formation as a channel. I think it's because my previous analyses didn't connect the top to the original touches. Regardless, I will explain why it is definitely a . As you can see on the top , there are two clear touches, where resistance prevented price from moving any higher. On the bottom , you can see that there are also two clear touches, that prevented price from moving any lower. The spread between the top touches and the bottom touches, creates a perfectly . Furthermore, there is a clear midline of the channel, which is something I often look for when I am assessing channels. You can see that the dashed midline on this channel has several interactions, all of which are further confirming this as a two part channel.
Most recently, price has been reacting very clearly, with the top of the channel (3.) You can see that we broke above the channel, tried to hold it, and then broke back down. Then, BTC broke back above it, and is currently testing the top of the channel for support. So, price is clearly interacting with a parallel .
Assuming that we hold the top of the channel this time, we should continue higher, to FINALLY test the 50 (in orange.) More specifically, that's the 50 from the , which is what I'm interested in. This is the four hour chart, so I am using the 300 here, to represent the 50 from the daily. A test of that level would put BTC around $4325.
On the , we can see that momentum is falling after a crossover was formed on the 21st. For price to move higher, let's watch for support on top of the channel, followed by a rise in price and a crossover on the 4 hour . On the other hand, if price falls back into the channel, the bias will return to the downside until BTC can show that it can hold support above it.
Also, I have removed the inverted possibility, because it was a distraction from the primary technical focus, which is the .
Happy Holidays Everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Everyone - IMO capitulation already happened and BTC bottomed (miners going out of business, retail investors have all run away and now you are left with mostly long term speculators and investors). Could we retest near the lows? Obviously. But we won't break below 3.1k. Technically we can see accumulation taking place on every dip now. Global equity markets are getting destroyed and this will be a long term trend. Investors will flee to Gold, US Dollar and other precious metals and probably allocate a small % into BTC. Stagflation is now the talks of what could be hitting the US within a year. The fundamentals of BTC have never been better. Lightning network is expanding. We've launched freakin satellites in space to transmit the blockchain worldwide now so emerging markets are not reliant on the internet for payments! BTC is by far the most decentralized network when measured by every aspect (# of nodes, geographically and now technology with the satellites). We have Bakkt, fidelity and investors such as Goldman Sachs and other major institutions supporting Coinbase, Circle and the like.
You need to play the market psychology and understand what is happening right now. Everyone is saying we haven't hit bottom yet. Everyone is calling for an 1100 bitcoin. When you review what happened in Dec 2017 what was Mike Novogratz telling everyone? He said, who knows, BTC could go to 25k, 40k, or even 50k. FOMO to the max right? The same happens in capitulated markets no matter the asset class. You'll have smart analysts always calling for lower and lower prices. Why? Because it's the same psychology which happens when you have a bull market, but the opposite in price action. Short sellers get cocky and greedy. They start increasing leverage to 100x and they think BTC is going 50% lower. When you start seeing signs like this of stupid short sellers taking huge risks this is the time when you know we are nearing the bottom. It's no different than people taking out second mortgages to buy BTC at 19k. My advice is if you bought near the bottom HODL with a stop loss at break even. Of if you can't take it emotionally ONLY ONLY sell at major resistances to bring your avg. cost basis down. You want exposure to BTC before the short squeeze happens next month. Trust me. You won't be able to catch it and no one knows for sure on timing.
I'm going to focus on T.V. mostly with updated analysis as I'm going 100% into BTC analysis. I was more focused on other platforms analyzing forex and commodity markets. This title was more click bait admittedly, but I called the BTC bottom back on Sep 20th and more importantly within a few days.