BVCryptoClub

statistical % based breakout tolerance for current BTC range

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After calculating the average price range for the last 150+ days, I have calculated a simple tolerance for determining if the next 'break out' has any potential for truly moving out of this range.

Light Blue represents the magnet range that we have been coming back to for almost 6 months
Dark Blue represents the most active range within this range
Green represents the average (combining up and down) that price has broken out of the range before returning.
Orange represents the statistical tolerance for a biased specific break out.

The general idea here is that if price moves beyond the blue range there are some inferences that can be drawn:

-If Price moves up: Anything that doesn't break out of the upper green zone is highly likely to fall back to the blue range and until price breaks above the orange zone with conviction and finds support, it is also likely to fall back to blue
-If Price moves down: Anything that doesn't break the orange zone is likely to come back to the blue range and a break of the lower green zone with conviction would probably indicate more dramatic downside.

A price breaks up or down out of all of the colored ranges could suggest that we are looking for a new trend or at least to develop a new range.
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