This will lead us into the world of probability which will tell us that soon something will happen but what, and where is the confirmation areas, let's find out!
To be said, currently the price is on the consolidation area and we can't predict where it may gonna go, we need more data, we need more indications and confirmations to say it correctly. At the moment I can say that BTC looks a bit weaker than before (still we are on the uptrend and we have some nice higher lows and lower highs) but luckily we have some very strong support levels below the current price.
Let's start from the chart pattern. Yes, it is a bit sloppy and almost middle of nowhere but actually here is a pretty important aspect. The chart pattern works with a much higher success rate when the second low point is on the trendline - here it matches exactly with the major counter trendline. In this area, around $3,800, we have also EMA200 which should act as a support. So, decent level but still be cautious because I don't like that price action which have been in this area and if the - - kicks in then the price goes through this level like a warm knife through the butter. Summary: decent level but we have to wait for rejection, at least we have something below the price which makes a drop a bit harder.
Luckily this level is not the only one , we have a blue area, around $3,750, which is discovered on the just below the previously talked level (orange ). We have multiple rejections from this level (~20 both directions), we don't have any candle close inside the area and if the price has broken through the area then only with strong candles and with high volume:
As said, we haven't seen any bounces more than 5 days, from the perspective let's hope that sellers don't accumulate because to break through the first level and to break through from the blue area needs a strong . That's why I have a red arrow just below the blue . If we get a 4H candle close below this blue area then it should be confirmed that we go and retest some lower levels - $3,500-$3,600 - I keep You posted!
SUMMARY: As said, the price is on the consolidation area and sadly, we don't have any confirmation areas we have only possible bounce areas where we have to watch what the price do.
bias: Perfect scenario would be a blue area touch, ~$3,750 and quick rejection upwards after that which guides us above the major counter trendline, definitely wait for a rejection!! ( patterns etc.)
bias: First signs may come if we get a candle close below the black trendline, let's say at least 1h candle close and the bigger confirmation comes after the candle close below the blue area. Yes, we have been below the blue area and the price has bounced quickly back but currently, the situation is a little bit different!
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Bullish confirmation is the blue trendline break, it should guide us into the higher levels if we get at least 4H candle close above of it and as said some altcoins make pretty nice pumps!
Interesting times ahead and here could come the prementioned volume spike and hopefully, the price follows that green arrow!
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Currently, fake outs to either direction and as said, be cautious, let the things settle down a bit and firstly let's wait for at least 1H candle close. It will give us some confirmations - at the moment first confirmations are the trendlines above and below the current price.
This is a very sloppy and poor breakout and to completely believe that is too naive but still, it could be a sign.
We have a breakout from the triangle - upwards - and today, the altcoins are also on the plus side.
Now there is more pos. signs than neg., this was also great that the marked areas worked exactly as support levels around the mentioned $3,800!
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