Price Finally Broke Down - Bitstamp - 1HR

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Price on Bitstamp printed $358 | 1hr time interval

Price finally broke down below $381 triggering the short setup that was indicated in our previous alert.

For the past 6 hours price has been flirting around a critical level.

On the long side: Price must break above the 100MA Lower BB at $367 and burst through $370 (200MA Lower BB). It has to be noted that, during this correction, price has been making lower-lows, whereas, the Stochastic has been making higher-lows, therefore painting a bullish divergence . Moreover, RSI is trying to form a bottom. These are the only indications that may prevent price from falling lower.

On the short side: A retest of $358 and a close below it, will increase the odds for testing the 20MA Lower BB at $355. If price manages to break below $355, then the odds will increase dramatically for testing the $329-$338 area where the recent rally from the $275 bottom actually broke out to the upside.

Overall: Price has been weak. RSI has been offering temporary support. MACD must produce a bullish cross. Caution is required on a break below $355.

Outcome Probabilities (updated):

Long: On a strong break above $368 – Max Target $383 | Probability of Reaching Max Target: 29%
Neutral: Price Range $356-$367 | Probability of Remaining Within Range: 33%
Short: On a strong break below $355 – Lower Target $330 | Probability of Reaching Lower Target: 38%
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