Price finally broke down below $381 triggering the short setup that was indicated in our previous alert.
For the past 6 hours price has been flirting around a critical level.
On the long side: Price must break above the 100MA Lower BB at $367 and burst through $370 (200MA Lower BB). It has to be noted that, during this correction, price has been making lower-lows, whereas, the has been making higher-lows, therefore painting a . Moreover, is trying to form a bottom. These are the only indications that may prevent price from falling lower.
On the short side: A retest of $358 and a close below it, will increase the odds for testing the 20MA Lower BB at $355. If price manages to break below $355, then the odds will increase dramatically for testing the $329-$338 area where the recent rally from the $275 bottom actually broke out to the upside.
Overall: Price has been weak. has been offering temporary support. must produce a cross. Caution is required on a break below $355.
Outcome Probabilities (updated):
Long: On a strong break above $368 – Max Target $383 | Probability of Reaching Max Target: 29%
Neutral: Price Range $356-$367 | Probability of Remaining Within Range: 33%
Short: On a strong break below $355 – Lower Target $330 | Probability of Reaching Lower Target: 38%