Last night I was debating whether to long or short bitcoin around 11200, at that point it really was a coin flip. Since we have recovered 0.236 of the last swing (B-C) and that level has acted as support on both the 1 hour and 4 hour time frame I'm happy to go long here with caution.
I was hoping to see a previous gartley play out ( ), the upside target was hit (eventually) but I feel this may now be an ABCDE correction since the pull back seems to be calming down and flattening out.
I've added notes where I'd expect false breaks to happen. My upside target is still around $16,400 (coin base prices - see previous chart, this chart is bitfinex)
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The equal measured move from (B) to (C) was too quick and I wasn't paying attention to the moving averages. Idea still validated, re-drawn for clarity.
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Argh - old long position (stopped out long ago) was still there. here's a cleaner update!
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A more acute angle for the bottom rail than I was expecting but here we are, this bounce from (C) has recovered more 50% of the daily open close of yesterday so that's a good bullish sign and we've passed the 0.236 retrace of the (B)-(C) down swing so more upside is likely here, so far the ABCDE correction is still valid.
I have actually just been buying up more coins the more it went down.. now waiting for it to come back up and cash out
CryptoKit_UA
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@PhilHumphreys, now who can say is it a triangle, as you shown, or a flat (3-3-5) and we are in inpulse wave down and it can go even more down ?
PhilHumphreys
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@nnovikov, Yes certainly. A flat 3-3-5 would not be a good look long term for sure but at least you'd get a decent exit on your long from this point. I'm remaining optimistic for now, the last time we were this oversold we were hanging around the 4hr 200 MA and also pulling back from the last swing about 0.786 - same here right now. Could be sideways for a few days from here if history is rhyming. Thanks again for the perspective mate :)
PhilHumphreys
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No dice here, original idea played out, long again from 9200
PhilHumphreys
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A more acute angle for the bottom rail than I was expecting but here we are, this bounce from (C) has recovered more 50% of the daily open close of yesterday so that's a good bullish sign and we've passed the 0.236 retrace of the (B)-(C) down swing so more upside is likely here, so far the ABCDE correction is still valid.