Feel free to look into these refined rules I have laid down on T.S. Hennessy's Alternate Elliott Wave count. This is something I have spent some time to refine, and in the process, came up with a wave counting process that will simply the wave count quite dramatically - This process is called "Wave Reduction" whose rules can be found in the "Predictive Analysis & Forecasting" Room on TradingView.com - Here is the link: tradingview.com/chat/ .
For now, this shot-term analysis and Wave Reduction layout in the chart.
The Wave Reduction have a simple repeatable pattern that is reducible or expandable, as per the fractal nature of price patterns it represents. Hence, the higher-degree Wave-1 contains the modular count defined as 1-2-3-A-3'-A'-B-C-4C-4C', where 4C and 4C' have a specific counter-trend task to accomplish relative to points 3 and 3', respectively. Failure of this task completion signals a trend continuation - Simply see the rule written within the linked discussion/lessons.
At this point, a separate model has defined the following two targets:
1 - TG-1 = 490.03 - 01 SEP 2014
and
2 - TG-Hi = 495.17 - 01 SEP 2014
Looking at the Wave Reduction rule, it appears that 4C' would be tasked to rally to a level corresponding to the primary target, TG-1 = 490.03 - 01 SEP 2014.
HOWEVER, there are levels that will require overcoming, namely: 484.89, which is the structural level where recent bears have repulsed price down to its current lower level.
ALSO, if price fell below 476.57, it would give the market little less chance for a rally to the targets to occur.
At this point, we stand between these TWO structural levels, and we can do nothing else but wait for either of these conditions to validate the analysis.
One small question, how do you pick 1 aka the start?
4xForecaster
⋅
@J.Livermore - I would love to provide a basic introduction to Elliott Wave principle, but this may be more than I can chew in this small thread. May be a teaching session would be in order IF and once TradingView comes up with video conferencing.
I would recommend looking into Mr. Prechter, Jr.'s EWI website. It has free information, and it would be coming right from the most reputable Elliotician available. If you encounter any problem during your review of the lessons that are offered (free) there, then let me know, so that I may be of additional help. But I truly believe that the start of such an endeavor should be granted with full credit to the authoritative website on this matter - David
4xForecaster
⋅
02 SEP 2014 - Update:
From Twitter:
------------------------
BTCUSD stomped at forecast level; Target coming near:
Your model was 100% valid at btc-e...I applied a revised wave count (thanks to your insights) and I decided to go short from 483 with a target set at 475 and then 452.
4xForecaster
⋅
@IvanLabrie - bingo! Excellent Ivan! Now, go get that beer you've worked so hard for!
:-)
David
IvanLabrie
⋅
Well with my profits I can't buy a thing, cause it's a demo account, but I'll drink in your honor :p
4xForecaster
⋅
Well, if you can't liquidate to liquify, you can always consolidate what you've learn to solidify that future account - It all goes to dust at the end.
David
ChartArt
⋅
Tip for you: Never publish a chart during the day at this time of the day.
I saw the price starting to fall several hours ago, this was the logical conclusion of it. It always starts very very slow until it reaches the point of no return - which mostly happens when China wakes up.
4xForecaster
⋅
Thank you @ChartArt - I appreciate the advice. What I publish is for educational purpose. The hits and misses are not as important as the demonstration of reasoning and adaptation to shifting situations. But it is good to know that there is a fundamental reason behind this miss. Again, very much appreciate you letting me know about this fact.
Cheers,
David
ChartArt
⋅
China is the heavyweight in Bitcoin. They are most of the time steering the direction, especially between 6pm EST to 11pm EST (which is 6am to 11am in Hong Kong, China).
30 day BTC trading volume:
- in EUR: 42,244
- in USD: 845,881
- in CNY: 2,983,756
7 day BTC trading volume:
- in EUR: 8,475
- in USD: 165,189
- in CNY: 506,310
And this is USD volume even including the trading bot glitch at BTC-E