* BTCUSD has been as regular as clockwork on the macro scale. * Dubious speculation: if BTCUSD monthly RSI were to grow at current rate, * Would we see BTCUSD 2nd monthly RSI peak in Mar'22? * Would this, as per previous bull runs, give us a BTCUSD peak in Apr'22? * (Gut tells me that BTCUSD will peak in end-Mar'22 / early-Apr'22.) * (Again, gut tells me that the trend may not be our friend for alts, timing-wise for this bull run.) * (Again again, gut tells me that smaller alts will peak at around the same time BTCUSD peaks, while ETH peaks later.) * Let's see. It's now the boring phase. Bags have been loaded during the mid-cycle consolidation. It's no longer decision time, but time to watch how BTCUSD moves and suggests what we should do next.
"Man, being the servant and interpreter of Nature, can do and understand so much and so much only as he has observed in fact or thought of the course of nature; beyond this he neither knows anything nor can do anything." (Francis Bacon)
"In nature things move violently to their place, and calmly in their place." (Francis Bacon)
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* Let's take our own sweet time, break 57.2K, and consolidate while remaining above 57.2K. All this week.
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* As expected, DXY is trending downwards this week (debt ceiling, approval of 2HFY21 budget plans). * This will provide much strength to BTCUSDT. * However, there is great resistance at the previous BTCUSDT ATH, and it will probably be range bound for some time. * This will be good for alts.
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* BTCUSD is unfortunately growing too fast, and monthly RSI has increased till 71.95. * Assuming the same momentum, this will give us BTCUSD's 2nd monthly RSI peak in Dec'21, BTCUSD peaking in Jan'22. * I'm also dubiously speculating that (alts-ETH) will peak in Jan'22, and ETHUSD to peak in Feb'22. * Based on both technical and fundamental reasons, I hope BTCUSD will grow slower.
Do you think were going to test 58500 area then retest 53000 area?
AlphaBravoCharlie77
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@WillTMoney, We will remain within the mid-cycle consolidation phase till we break 74.3K, so that's definitely a possibility, especially since the 20W SMA is still at 41.8K.
However, given BTC's volatility, it's best not to dabble in short-term trades and focus on the macro scale instead. Why bother with the 50K range when BTCUSD will more than surpass 100K?
It's the boring phase now. Major decisions have already been made. I was so bored that I wrote a sucky poem: