Yesterday the Bitcoin God came to me. I was doing my usual TA & was considering our current pattern. Consensus is we're in a symmetrical triangle & on the surface it seems so, but there are a few issues I've been wrestling with - specifically:
- Waves in a ST must have 3 sub waves each
- In ours, 5 sub waves can be clearly counted
- These waves also look like diagonals which only appear in waves 1/A
- Is a ST? If not, what?
Just then, in a flash, the Bitcoin God appeared, & resting his golden hand on my shoulder, said: "Llywellyn! whence we came we shall come again. Within thy candles ye shall find that which thou seeks- the Map of Bitcoin Future- which thy hast just revealed."
Turning to leave on a rainbow, with a wink he said: "Remember-judge not simply the shape of thy patterns. All's not always as it seems!"
Rubbing my eyes in disbelief, I looked back at my chart & a small nondescript pattern suddenly became brilliantly luminous. Looking like a symmetrical triangle too, I recalled wrestling with the same issues before i.e. wave counts etc. so I took a closer look..
EUREKA! THERE IT IS!
April 1-12, in the throes of the bearish-est part of the chart, when it seemed like the bottom was about to fall out on the entire market, a little "symmetrical triangle" formed & against expectations, sparked a bull run that resulted in a 50% price increase to the doorstep of 10k.
So I compared this to our current pattern & the similarities are uncanny. For starters, just the look: The trend angle of the 1/A & 3/C waves are nearly identical (top 2 windows) & even the leg down preceding the triangle is consistent.
Going more into the weeds, the similarities continue. Both 1/A waves have a long 1/A sub wave. 2/B has a long 1/A sub & relatively short 2/B & 3/C sub waves. The 3/C waves both look like diagonals with 5 clear sub waves. The 4/D wave (which we are in as of now) features a sharp decline (& is inspiring much of the "crash" talk we saw then & are seeing again now). If we continue on this track- we should see another diagonal form in 5/E position to set up THE breakout.
The retracements for each wave are almost identical & uniquely so. I didn't put fib on the chart, but wave 2/B retreats beyond the .786 fib of 1/A - about 88% total. The 4/D wave does about the same. That is exactly the retracement we saw on the longer time frame when, after bottoming at 6k -price rose to 11700 & then came all the way back to 6600 which = ~88% retreat. If we see the same thing happen for this current wave, it should bottom around 7k/6900 before starting the wave 1 diagonal to kick off sub wave 3 of primary wave 3- aka the strongest wave.
If we follow the map precisely, wave 3 will set a new ATH & wave 5 will hit around 25k . Of course, once Bitcoin gets loose this could change- & I'm not accounting for logarithmic growth here - in reality it could be higher given these factors.
Things change- but all I know is that right now...SO FAR...we are following this almost to a T. Charts love to repeat the same patterns & we already have a clear example in the very recent past for what an impulse wave looks like breaking out of a "symmetrical triangle." I don't see any reason why it can't follow the same track - especially when you consider that the fundamentals of Bitcoin have improved significantly since the pullback began. There is good news seemingly every day about new money, institutional investors, trading desks etc. Bitcoin is faster & cheaper now than it was before - & blockchain tech is starting to deliver goods that allow even the layman access to owning, storing & using crypto.
No, we are not crashing as some would have you believe. We are now on the steps of the next Great Bull Run. The only question is...are you ready to run with 'em?
Long Live Bitcoin!