Basing on fractal of previous price moevement I made a fractal which I think we are going to follow. Price will close above daily 12 EMA and then got rejected by 26 EMA. Rejection of 26 daily EMA and breaking down 12 daily EMA would be very bearish signal. My idea about Stoch/Rsi is still active and according to it we still haven't bottomed yet. That's why I don't take any long positions. Even it looks like breaking up right now.
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4H perspective looks even better. 4k 100EMA is clear resistance zone and I place my shorts around this line
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So far so good. The price closed above 12 daily EMA and follows price action from June. 2 of my 4 shorts are already filled. I wait with another two shorts when we get closer to 100 4hEMA. I hope bulls can get there ;)
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It looks like we are going to make it. I set 3/4 of my shorts over 6500. I wait for the last one after confirmation. 12/26 cross 4hEMA is the confirmation. There is one exception which can relevant here. I describe it in another update
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There is less likely possible situation we make cross and bounce again so I am going to watch price action carefully
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We bounced but it was likely to happen. We didn't make bearish cross but the plan is active. Some day traders could take a lot of profit here but I don't daytrade and just find places of strong resistance/support and put my trades there. Right now we are getting closer to strong resistance zone where I put the last of my shorts. Crossing 26 daily EMA invalids plan. Price action is still very similar to june. We also got a decent bounce before the final drop.
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June price action. It looks almost identical and that's why I have some doubts about it. Do the things can happen twice??
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Price action looks strange. It should fall but high selling volume was absorbed by buyers. I closed my shorts in profit for now and I am watching price action carefuly. Maybe another retest. My plan is valid till 26 DEMA holds the price down.
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This one is inactive anymore. I mentioned it in my last analysis Today I make the new one!
Wow....I just gone through 2 previous analysis u just posted on my comment.
U wont believe I had just been doing the same r&d on previous yr % of ups and downs. Ur figures were on max same which I was writing. It helped me to clear and correct my observation.
Thnx again.
I was thinking the same too. This dead cat bounce looks real similar to the bounce from 7k-7K8 in early June. There is limited upside.
The_Real_AMF
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THanks for the insight! Looks like it will indeed drop. Excited to see what happens and have fiat ready!
Poonam1775
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Yes I agree with you pro shares were earlier denied in late December 17 and I think in no way sec will approve any etf before cboe...this is the most important. ...can we call this bounce as dead cat bounce as price may hover at 6.3 to 6.4 and by 23 after etf announced panic sell off proceed thus validate your fractals
Poonam1775
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By tomorrow price may dip as u rightly analysed cos most probably pro shares etf will be denied and ppl will think main etf of cboe is rejected causing panic sell
Astroc
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@Poonam1775, I will make the second scemario. There is possibility than we will see upward movement before finally drop to 5200-5300. All this stacking shorts and big hidden buys distract my fractal and things may happen different now. I think ProShares etf is already priced in.
Astroc
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Price action looks strange. It should fall but high selling volume was absorbed by buyers. I closed my shorts for now and I am watching price action carefuly
Astroc
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We bounced but it was likely to happen. We didn't make bearish cross but the plan is active. Some day traders could take a lot of profit here but I don't daytrade and just find places of strong resistance/support and put my trades there. Right now we are getting closer to strong resistance zone where I put the last of my shorts. Crossing 26 daily EMA invalids plan. Price action is still very similar to june. We also got a decent bounce before the final drop.
U wont believe I had just been doing the same r&d on previous yr % of ups and downs. Ur figures were on max same which I was writing. It helped me to clear and correct my observation.
Thnx again.
Regret why I didn't followed u before.