BITCOIN Can be sideways for 4 months if history repeats itself.

I will keep the analysis short this time as the fractal is pretty obvious. I am comparing last week's aggressive sell-off with the one in November/ December 2018.

*2018*
- The sell-off started exactly in mid-November while the price was trading below the 1D MA50.
- Stage 1 was the first bearish leg that took a short pause with a consolidation (first circle on the chart).
- Stage 2 was the most aggressive leg which again took a (this time longer) pause by making a Lower High.
- That Lower High led to Stage 3, which was basically a Channel Down (steady Lower Lows) towards the December 15, 2018 bottom.
- When the LMACD made a bullish cross, the Lower High on that Channel Down was priced and gave one last Low.

*2019*
- The sell-off also started while the price was trading below the 1D MA50.
- Stage 1 is also the first bearish leg, taking a short pause in the end of it.
- Stage 2 has been more aggressive than the respective 2018 but is again consolidating after its Low.
- Assuming this consolidation and the current Lower High is the build up of the Channel Down, we can say that we are currently on Stage 3. If the same pattern is repeated then Bitcoin should retest at least the 3850 low before entering a lengthy multi-month consolidation.
- The LMACD still hasn't made a bullish cross, so we can expect one more Low.


In 2018/2019 that consolidation lasted around 3.5 months, from the Dec 15 2018 bottom to April 1 2019, which was the last day before the aggressive rise (recovery) started. If this is the case this time also, then we can expect Bitcoin to trade sideways until mid July.

This is still a premature projection amid the coronavirus pandemic, but it is one of the best correlations we got. Wouldn't you agree with this? Let me know in the comments section!

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