I will keep the analysis short this time as the fractal is pretty obvious. I am comparing last week's aggressive sell-off with the one in November/ December 2018.
*2018* - The sell-off started exactly in mid-November while the price was trading below the 1D MA50. - Stage 1 was the first bearish leg that took a short pause with a consolidation (first circle on the chart). - Stage 2 was the most aggressive leg which again took a (this time longer) pause by making a Lower High. - That Lower High led to Stage 3, which was basically a Channel Down (steady Lower Lows) towards the December 15, 2018 bottom. - When the LMACD made a bullish cross, the Lower High on that Channel Down was priced and gave one last Low.
*2019* - The sell-off also started while the price was trading below the 1D MA50. - Stage 1 is also the first bearish leg, taking a short pause in the end of it. - Stage 2 has been more aggressive than the respective 2018 but is again consolidating after its Low. - Assuming this consolidation and the current Lower High is the build up of the Channel Down, we can say that we are currently on Stage 3. If the same pattern is repeated then Bitcoin should retest at least the 3850 low before entering a lengthy multi-month consolidation. - The LMACD still hasn't made a bullish cross, so we can expect one more Low.
In 2018/2019 that consolidation lasted around 3.5 months, from the Dec 15 2018 bottom to April 1 2019, which was the last day before the aggressive rise (recovery) started. If this is the case this time also, then we can expect Bitcoin to trade sideways until mid July.
This is still a premature projection amid the coronavirus pandemic, but it is one of the best correlations we got. Wouldn't you agree with this? Let me know in the comments section!
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I've said we need to chop sideways before we know the bottom is in, like last time.
TradingShot
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@pinski121, Last time as in the December 2018 bottom that I mention on my analysis?
samuraiben
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@TradingShot, Nice Post
Its going pretty nice sideways for the moment which is a great sign for accumulation and the longer it does this the bigger, more volatile it will be. For the people who say its correlated to s&p. Its not.
I agree its the same players but not the same markets. The FED will keep printing until their fingers bleed or their system will collapse. Means either deflation,stagnation or inflation in huge numbers like in Venezuela or Zimbabwe. which then again could mean gold goes to what? 10k usd? btc to 100k-1m usd? Btw the European central banks are considering the same. Here in Brussels they stopped shorting for a month AHHAHAHAH. they will change the system in their favour like that. but will let u short BTC at 20k <3
Precious metals stay the cure to this financial banking system we are apart of. And they know it.