-bullish crossover between 20 and 121 MAs was not confirmed by RSI (so that RSI was in overbought zone and producing a bearish signal now) -Rejected by Descending Channel's resistance
The solid confirmation for it would be the Price crosses 121 MA from above and RSI crosses its 50 horizontal.
Interesting thought: Currently we have a Chinese New Year, so it is a perfect time to start declining the price. Because the market's opinion is this decline is something natural and the price will reverse afterall (even me thinks so). So wait for confirmations to prove it to be a Bull Trap (mentioned them before).
Also do not forget about Halving.
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
@Anpu, Thank you too !
Note : I'm using log chart, always log chart. Trendlines will show differently, but in a good way by deleting linear unzoom bias. Most pro traders use log chart.
I like your other work, but on this one I think your bearish bias is too much. I did similar by being hyper-bullish when BTC was 10k some months ago hahaha
And even considering the channel your way, we need not to forget about the very strong horizontal support on which we are evolving right now. And then, there is 7500 horizontal level on which we can also see your mid trendline deviation.
Projecting scenarios is ok, but I'll usually do like ExCavo by projecting all of them
Anpu
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@Maped, First thing whay's the interest for me to be bearish, to be biased? there is no one. That's why I am making analysis and try to do it correct (in my view :)). "we need not to forget about the very strong horizontal support on which we are evolving right now" that why I mention the bull trap need to be confirmed. I suppose the breakout of support you mention would be a great confirmation.
wargolynch
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@Anpu, A bias does not mean "to be biased"
A bias is just a subjective opinion, in trading. I Did not want to say you are biased :)
BorisPoff
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@Maped, @Anpu - that’s exactly what I’m talking about. If you consistently draw channels through the tops and bottoms of the wicks it gives you a much less arbitrary pattern to make conclusions. In Maped version the channel has been broken upwards and we have been retracing/consolidating for the past week.
wargolynch
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@BorisPoff, Peter Brandt believes the same thing !
Anpu
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@BorisPoff, Channel, trendlines can be redrawn and this is an old practice in order to avoid being biased btw). I think using newer data would be better to use. To talk about bull trap it needs to be confirmed, to talk about breakout of the Channel I drawn it might happen, But I really do not understand why you think the way I draw a channel is not correct. :)
BorisPoff
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@Anpu, “incorrect” is a bit of a strong word. I’d say I prefer a bit different method for determining trends.
The method is to use either candle bodies or candle wicks but don’t mix them up in defining a single channel. Second thing is once a trend has been established on a appropriate time scale, then don’t change it.
The reason I like @Maped setup is because his downward channel started in July and by mid-October it was very VERY well defined. From that moment forward, I am looking for potential breakouts from that channel up or down.
The difference in this line of thinking from your idea is that both Maped and myself are looking for a confirmation of a BULL move instead of a BEAR move.
Since this is a Weekly chart a close above that channel upper boundary was what I was looking for and it happened last week. This week we are testing the same line but now approaching from above - a classical breakout test. If the price closes above the channel this week it’s a good sign for further bullish action. But a real confirmation would be a bounce, i.e. a move above 9k, triggering a trade. Alternatively, the price gets inside the channel and we are looking at further decline towards 7k. In this last case I make no trade.
This channel setup is what allows me to enter trades for execution. If I were to redraw the channel I would be chasing bull or bear direction. If this works for you, great. You may make some money on the bear move. Chances of the bear move from here are almost as high as bull, it’s just a different setup.