As you can see there is a perfect fractal price-action match between BTC and NASDAQ.
The orange bars below the BTC graph is the NASDAQ price action on a weekly basis, taken from Apr'98 till today. It went through the "dot.com bubble" in 2000 - just like Bitcoin had his hype rally in 2017 - then to a period of consolidation and coming back to the mean after which a new gigantic bull run has started.
Obviously now everything is happening and developing much faster. The crypto market is more dynamic and volatile. So the time and space vector is more compressed.
If history shall repeat, or rhyme, once again... we should see a short-period retracement coming in the next few weeks. Let's say to 7500 $. After which we will experience a massive bull-run that will establish a new ATH before the and of this year (2020).
The rally will continue and in late 2021 we will have another crypto-euphoria peak. Fractal pointing at 40,000 $ level!
This will be a rally of about 530%. Don't miss it!
This is what i'd like to see happen. The fed however is propping up the entire stock market right now with stimulus money to give the general public the perception that everything is alright (It really isn't). Since your TA basically states both markets are trading in sync right now, which I also agree with, I can see us being in no mans land trading in this broad range even longer. Long term, it would actually benefit crypto to decouple itself from the actual market (which i also don't see happening).
lucamodena
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@gofordaggers, It's a great comment! Yes so basically central banks are pomping the stock markets... and I think eventually it will end up pretty badly. However this flood of non-existing money into the markets and 0% interest rates will hugely benefit cryptos. Bitcoin will soon gain momentum. Finally it will detach from the stock market and choose it's own path (as soon as broad adoption will gain momentum too).
gofordaggers
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@lucamodena, The fed's Powell will have his news conference later today. From the interview he gave on Monday, he didn't paint a very rosey picture. Markets are mixed to start off this morning. We'll see how they react later today and tomorrow after the economic reports/conference are done. This could be the trigger that finally pushes the market down. The smart money is watching from the sidelines.
lucamodena
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@gofordaggers, of course. Warren Buffet is sitting on cash for a good reason. I am eager to see the data for the 2nd quarter at the end of July. This will be funny :D anyway I expect the stock market to rally until the US pres. elections.
gofordaggers
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@lucamodena, I came away from that conference with mixed signals. The positive being the next stimulus package announcement is coming at the end of July and the suggestion to help phase IV businesses hardest hit (entertainment/arts/leisure/hotels). The negative? We actually need to contain covid or face dire consequences. The fact that the EU today announced the US is on their banned list of countries speaks volumes about where we actually are with this. The markets did however pump slightly as the day wore on. Not by much though. If this were a chart, we'd be in the no trade zone.
dk3rai
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Much more progress in the charts since this was published.