This is entirely speculative, especially with regards to the timeline.
But this is a simplification of what I see happening next, if the bullish trend continues.
1) The macro Fibonacci is based on placing 0 at the bottom of the last bear market, and 0.236 on the peak of the retracement rally before capitulation following the 2017 bull run peak. Precisely, this is 04 September 2018.
2) From this macro Fibonacci is projected the top of the current bull run, at around 80k +/-.
3) An analysis of the trend angle of the ascent to January's ATH, and February's ATH, gives values of 52 degrees and 38 degrees respectively. Projecting that forward on a percentage difference basis gives a possible trend angle of 27.8 degrees for the next and final wave to the bull run cycle peak.
4) The hypothesis is that we're seeing unfold a large seven-wave structure. BTC is currently printing Wave 6 down, before going on to print the seventh and final wave.
5) This seven-wave structure mirrors what was printed 08-21 February. This structure is marked out on the chart.
6) Within the seventh wave, there is also a seven-wave movement. And within the seventh wave of the seven-wave movement, there are also seven waves. It fractal in nature.
7) The exact placing of these waves is not meant to be accurate. I'm estimating positions based on the macro Fibonacci that BTC is ascending within, and also assuming 0.5 retracements as an average in a strong upside ascent, which I expect once the base of Wave 6 comes in at around 50.1 +/-.
8) It is very possible that this timeline is off. We may well see, as we saw in January, a period of consolidation, and perhaps one or more bull flags printed. Thus, this chart represents only a general outlook, and perhaps the cleanest path BTC could take, which is almost certainly not the one it will take.
9) All of this is based on the assumption that the bull run remains intact. A drop below 47k, in my view, would bring this assumption into question. But on balance, I lean towards this not happening.
10) What I think is happening is that BTC is simply slowing as it reaches greater resistance near the top levels of the macro Fibonacci. It has nothing to do with "psychological price levels".
I'm expecting a red weekend. But again, no one knows the timeline exactly.
Feel free to comment and tell me your thoughts.
But this is a simplification of what I see happening next, if the bullish trend continues.
1) The macro Fibonacci is based on placing 0 at the bottom of the last bear market, and 0.236 on the peak of the retracement rally before capitulation following the 2017 bull run peak. Precisely, this is 04 September 2018.
2) From this macro Fibonacci is projected the top of the current bull run, at around 80k +/-.
3) An analysis of the trend angle of the ascent to January's ATH, and February's ATH, gives values of 52 degrees and 38 degrees respectively. Projecting that forward on a percentage difference basis gives a possible trend angle of 27.8 degrees for the next and final wave to the bull run cycle peak.
4) The hypothesis is that we're seeing unfold a large seven-wave structure. BTC is currently printing Wave 6 down, before going on to print the seventh and final wave.
5) This seven-wave structure mirrors what was printed 08-21 February. This structure is marked out on the chart.
6) Within the seventh wave, there is also a seven-wave movement. And within the seventh wave of the seven-wave movement, there are also seven waves. It fractal in nature.
7) The exact placing of these waves is not meant to be accurate. I'm estimating positions based on the macro Fibonacci that BTC is ascending within, and also assuming 0.5 retracements as an average in a strong upside ascent, which I expect once the base of Wave 6 comes in at around 50.1 +/-.
8) It is very possible that this timeline is off. We may well see, as we saw in January, a period of consolidation, and perhaps one or more bull flags printed. Thus, this chart represents only a general outlook, and perhaps the cleanest path BTC could take, which is almost certainly not the one it will take.
9) All of this is based on the assumption that the bull run remains intact. A drop below 47k, in my view, would bring this assumption into question. But on balance, I lean towards this not happening.
10) What I think is happening is that BTC is simply slowing as it reaches greater resistance near the top levels of the macro Fibonacci. It has nothing to do with "psychological price levels".
I'm expecting a red weekend. But again, no one knows the timeline exactly.
Feel free to comment and tell me your thoughts.
Comment:
23 Apr 2021 11:50:23: There are two possibilities and I will post both. Using a comparison with February, first, placing the 0.702 on the liquidation wick down 18 April. This may suggest one more leg down to around 46k
Comment:
23 Apr 2021 11:52:14: The second possibility is based on ignoring the liquidations wick (ignoring it, that is, in terms of fundamental price action) and placing the 0.702 on the buy candle of the downside move 18 April. This might suggest the base is already in:
Comment:
23 Apr 2021 12:35:25: Updating here:
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