Bitcoin along with most cryptos has been in freefall for the last 2 weeks. The move down for the 9th of May high at $59592 to the 19th of May low at $30000 wiped off nearly 50% of its value in just 10 days. We did see a sharp bounce from the psychological support level of $30000 but it was short lived. We had some support at $32500 from the 50% retracement level of the entire move up from $0 to the ATH. The 19th of May saw the 200-day moving average break and we are still trading below. This will be the first hurdle the bulls need to overcome before we can start looking to the upside. Key levels to watch this week will be $41000 for the bulls and $30000 for the bears.
$41000 may coincide with a test of resistance from 200 MA and from an Elliott Wave and Fibonacci perspective this is around the 38.2% retracement of wave 3. This is a common termination point of wave 4 and could suggest a move lower for wave 5 should resistance hold.
Should we see $30000 give way we should be looking at a final push lower to complete wave 5. The most common relationships for the termination of wave 5 are:
• Equality between waves 5 and 1 which comes in around $23700.
• Wave 5 = .618 of wave 3 which comes in just below $23000.
$41000 may coincide with a test of resistance from 200 MA and from an Elliott Wave and Fibonacci perspective this is around the 38.2% retracement of wave 3. This is a common termination point of wave 4 and could suggest a move lower for wave 5 should resistance hold.
Should we see $30000 give way we should be looking at a final push lower to complete wave 5. The most common relationships for the termination of wave 5 are:
• Equality between waves 5 and 1 which comes in around $23700.
• Wave 5 = .618 of wave 3 which comes in just below $23000.