BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I see the potential for an Elliot triangle correction pattern. Forming as a correction to the downward trend started 7th Jan. If the upper resistance line of the triangle isn't broken, and we hit (D) and (E) on the chart, then I expect to see the price fall based on trend-based fib extension and prior support. Potential buy-zone at $5.1k - $5.7k USD. Ideas and thoughts welcome.
Comment: I should have acknowledged the fact we have some major support on the way down. It's not a free fall : )
Comment: Ignore the first link. Still learning !
Comment: We've hit (D) and (E), let's see if we break the lower threshhold of the channel. $10.5k to break the channel, $10k-9.5k we meet support. Let's see how supportive it really is.
Comment: I've updated the chart to reflect the actual points hit, and adjusted the channel accordingly. Still appears to be a valid formation, although the boundaries have extended out a little.
Well the breakout on the 27th turned out to be a fake. While we didn't follow the pattern perfectly, we did see a drop, although I might need to do a little work on my calculations re: support targets.
Why are you so sure that 8-9K support will fail?
@timdeleeuw, I'm never sure : ) That mark has been been tested twice now and I don't believe historical support has much relevance here as there isn't much history at this level. Depending on where you start your Fib retracement (I chose 13th Nov 17), this level is well below 0.618 which in my mind makes it highly susceptible to a breakout. I also believe when we see a breakout, it will be substantial enough to break through support.
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