It seems that btcusd is bottoming around here, as shown by the price chart.
We can observe falling in the selloff, and more than 5 days without new lows.
It's a complex chart, and conventional analysis methods won't work well with it.
The trend is mostly formed by the current mining production, the markets that operate with and the influence of speculators.
I'd say that speculation isn't the driving force here, maybe we're in a stabilization phase for .
If we don't fall fast below 246 it's more probable to rise slowly towards 390.68.
I'm lending currently, the rates are good and you can split your capital in multiple assets, like , part altcoins thanks to poloniex (great site to check out) and part usd 'tokens' thanks to Bitfinex.
The only problem is you can't operate there if you are from New York .
For now, taking trades in BTCUSD is dangerous and prone to random walk style behavior until heavy handed players show up again. Margin trading at okcoin is akin to gambling, I won't bother...same can be said about margin trading altcoins at poloniex, when you have 10-50% range bars, and 2.5x leverage, only the house wins in the long run. (and the liquidity providers ;) )
Look at how the smart money buying spree range has contained the price since we hit 150 and rebounded.
Vixfix shows a nasty spike and a 75% retrace at the top of it (257) which effectively supported price in the recent decline.
I've learned about this hidden level from Tim West's publication, it's a reliable indication for smart money activity.
Right now, I'm holding btc while I trade ETH, I suspect that both will rally more or less in sync, but ETH will obviously rally much more exponentially than BTC.