[post production edit]: I need to do a better job of following up on these. I'll have to revisit why the Date Range forecast didn't work properly in this instance, but the end result was that we retraced to the 50% mark rather than achieving lower lows, as I had anticipated. TL;DR is this trade was a FAIL. Stopped out by price action after three days of peculiar consolidation. It could be said that once price didn't either achieve 50% retracement OR lower lows (in this instance) within the amount of time specified by the Date Range Forcast, that the "pattern" should then be considered invalid, as well as the original premiss for the trade.
[Original] The Green and Red box are part of my Date Range Forecast (see linked idea) and indicate that we will see either a bull run to breach 255 in the next 11 bars, or we'll see lower lows past 208.48. With that in mind the targets are based on the H&S pattern which have done very well for me on higher time frames after break out.
2015 Price forecast .........................Full volatility..............Half volatility Forecast using only G ...............................383$...........................383$ Upper bound adding volatility...................1136$......................... 660$ Lower bound subtracting volatility.............130$.......................... 220$
Comments
Noobincrypt
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The 11 bars meaning on your 4hr chart, by the weekend well have a nice pump or dump session? Alays fun to read the different predictions, thx.
ninjabenja
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Yes that's correct. The TLDR on Date Range Forecasting is simply this: Assuming the top or bottom is in; In the same amount of time that it took to print the high or low, price will see a 50% retracement. If price doesn't retrace to 50% in that span, it will make a higher high... or lower low. It's been incredibly consistent. So, right now there are 11 bars left, or 1 day 20 hrs for price to reverse and get up to that 50% mark. Not saying it can't happen- I am saying, right now we are 80% more likely to see lower lows, before getting anywhere near 255.