History Never Fogets. Modest Target for Next Peak

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
717 0 11
Now the reason we really will not go down overall in the mid term is because the market has seen too much bad news. We have already seen how even as bad news happens it becomes less dramatic each time. The Willy report is not anything new that we did not already know or speculate on. If it was bad it would have moved us FAST like all news does. There does need to be main stream media news since the small group of people who sell or buy on the news kick start the rest of us.

Now I did write a little bit about the super bears or the ones who still have bear tendency. There is some good sentiment analysis on this and I believe it is rather positive. Basically there is still some skepticism that can dilute the overall trend idea that some people have. Bitcoin moves basically what a normal market moves in 2-3 months it does 3-4 days. It is also based upon emotions more than most other markets so the fundamental value will be greatly off at any one moment. I think 800% gains are around what the fundamental value is based on. It should start going lower but more info is needed.

I setup a pitchfork where it looks like the 150% could be the next stopping point as it was for the last top. Oddly enough putting a normal pitchfork in those 3 spots will give you the upward channel. 2400-2800 seems to be the range I am getting from all of this.

Okay, if you want more visit my blog at:
I go much more in-depth on bubbles and the indicators.

Edit 6/1/14: The line was little hard to draw since it all had to be drawn continuously. More of an approximation of what I think could happen.