I think there is a good possibility we are here. But once the pattern completes then could reverse down instead of going to ATH. I just am not convinced we have confirmed top just yet.
Just a little off topic: this is not a fractal but a linear sequence that repeat itself. A fractal is a structure that repeat itself in different scale (inside a structure there are more structures that are identical to the bigger one) , so it' s a complete different things.
ETCBTC
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@Loth, I see. Well the bottom chart (2014) is a 12 hr and top chart (2018) is daily
LucidOne
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@Loth, There are linear sequences that are also fractals. Fractal algorithms can be used for anything that can take a numeric input, and the chosen display of these numbers can vary widely.
Just consider these expressions of them:
Fractal music
2D Line Graphs
2D Polygons
3D Polygon
Animated sequences (fractal flames).
If you explore the market from different timescales, you will also see some similar patterns, just as you would on a Mandelbrot explorer. We can see examples of fractals in most natural systems. Examples include the formation of galaxies, growth of crystals, the growth of bacteria, the structure of plants, the structure of animals, even the sand on the coasts. So why not markets?
dent77x
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@LucidOne, Its very interesting. Patterns like roots and rivers and dunes formed by the wind are all similar as well as the examples you stated. The patterns repeat in all aspects of life and matter, as if everything in the end (from the beginning?) comes from the same formula. The problem with the market is mostly that there are people that are aware of these patterns and that people look at them. Because of it, they might intentionally try to break the patterns for different reasons but with the end goal of making more profit.
I also think that because the patterns are predictable the market itself breaks the patterns automagically, but that is just a theory. If something is too obvious too many bet on it making it not happen. Not sure if I am explaning it good enough for you to understand what I mean but its like the market changes the patterns by itself because it can never repeat itself exactly because then it would make it too obvious for the traders making it not happen.
Loth
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@LucidOne, I know that fractal exist everywhere in universe, our planet, our body and I never said that there are no fractal in 2d chart, I found myself some fractals in my charts, but this one isn't a fractal.
Look at fractalfoundation descriptions or a mathematical definition of fractal sequences (there is also a Clark Kimberling pdf that is good), to see that this particular case is not a fractal.
Have a good day :)
LucidOne
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@Loth, My mistake; I thought you were implying that linear fractals don't exist.
befunkt
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@Loth, Of course, we cannot know that this is not a fractal until some time has passed.