Long term correction after halving?

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It seems that the price hit the optimal level to begin sell off.
The buying back phase will start at 460 level, to form accumulation range between 480 and 510.
In my opinion we will have lot of selling just before BTC             halving and than, after it the price will bounce to the 680 area again.
As usually, we will see the triangle forming. However I don't think that we will have next bull run. The price might even break resistance line for short time, to trap breakout buyers. The supply - demand ratio need to stabilize and this time, the bears will push price lower.
That's why more probable scenario for me is breaking current trend line and support testing at 450 level.
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