I want to share my view with you, I am not a top trader but I toke advantage of traingview powerfully tools and draw made this idea. I see so many bullish ideas and can`t believe how peoples are so limited and can`t see the truth here, not so long ago in 2013 BTC -0.36% was worth under $10.00, someone bought lot of coins and peaked to $1000.00 but in all these years his true average value was around $500.00, big players pumped this to 20K and lot of people paid lot of money for something with no mean or real value, and they are still willing to pay lot of $ these days for BTC -0.36% ... how is this possible? because with all this adoption and many traders coming into the market I can still see only one path for BTC -0.36% .
Please do not trade with emotions or hopes as market has nothing to do with these.
I have taken a quick look at your analysis and attempted to reproduce your work. I see you have assumed the trend-line that started in 2014 and extrapolated that in time. That is sound but you need to review your assumption - market sentiment/general public awareness (in as far as crypto and block-chain technology is concerned) is certainly not what it was in 2014. Look at it this way - very few people saw this bear market we are currently in, coming - which was triggered by various factors including Mt Goxx Bitcoin sells. Nobody could have seen that coming yet that event (along with others) blew to dust all extrapolations and their underlying assumptions. I am not saying that you are necessarily wrong - I am saying that we should keep an open mind.
EmilyForlan
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@patakopesa, Thank you very much for your comment, is greatly appreciated.
Someone could have seen this coming... maybe experienced traders as I definitely did not see it. Have a look of this chart, I saw an idea of parabolic chart pattern and is looking that we could have predicted this
chartpattern.com/parabolic-curve.cfm
patakopesa
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@EmilyForlan, in as far as corrections following parabolic moves are concerned, yes we could have see it coming - but no one expected it to fall more than 70% - and no one expected it would last this long and more so because people were under the impression that 2018 would be 'the year of crypto' - that certainly caught people unawares. Everyone's looking back now and learning their lessons but nobody expected to be doing that at this point in time.
What's worse - no one has thought about the possibility that this could last until Dec 2019 !
EmilyForlan
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@patakopesa, I`we done some research and seems that most Parabolic arc patterns have a significant correction between 60% and 80% of the price rise, Cryptomarket is not similar to other markets and BTC correction might be more than 80% as we saw on the other altcoins, the true is that nobody knows.... how long and how deep will be
dRends35
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I would agree that hope is not a great investment strategy. However to say that the pioneering blockchain that allows you to effortlessly store and transfer wealth as pure data is "something with no real value" also seems aberrant to reality.
Big waves make big crashes and it seems certainly better to follow than to lead in a speculative, emotional, manipulated market.
I like your target. Bargain bitcoin bucket :)
EmilyForlan
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@dRends35, Thanks! Is realistic value no matter if mining profitability disagree us, we have to accept the facts that mining will keep going but profits will be taken in years, who survives and keep his bitcoin bucket will be rewarded.
i dont think lines in this graphic represent things correctly
harpreet06
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I don't see it. Why did you place the realistic value box where you did? Its in a totally different location the first time, with your meanline going through the middle of it and coming out the top right corner. For the future one, the meanline is almost going through the bottom left corner and comes out near the middle at the top. You're also saying we've yet to reach the realistic value box, whereas the first time around it was pretty much always in it from when the 2013 bull run ended to when the recent bull run started.
There's also the case of, why did you place your meanline where you did? It seems to start at a random point, the low of Oct 2013, goes through the low of Feb 14 and just carries on.
I'm not sure why you've added a sine-wave to it. It doesn't match either. The peak of the first wave is Apr 2014 which is 4-5 months after the actual price peak. Second wave peaks at March 2018, which is 3-4 months after the actual price peak.
I don't agree with your analysis at all. A lot of spelling errors and it just doesn't make sense. So in 2013 it was worth under $10, then just one person bought lots of coins to make it go over $1000? Bitcoin in 2013 was only worth under $10 in 2 months of what your chart shows and those are wicks with lows of $1 and $0, likely due to hacking. The actual candles range is $70 to $150 before the bull run. You then say the true average value was around $500, but everywhere else you say it had no mean or real value. Why did one person buying lots of btc cause the value to go from under $10 to $500? Then you say you only see one path for BTC, with your previous bias indicating a downwards move, but your graph shows an infinite bull run.