Naturally the breach of the lower november bear triangle that we've been fighting for almost 6 months resulted in a surge of bull euphoria. That energy took us strongly through the upper bear triangle as well -- another bullish sign. However, we're likely nearing the top of this push, and it remains to be seen how the market will proceed after this peak.
One rally does not a trend make -- the crucial question is how will this rally resolve? Will it pullback just a bit and then punch through the thin 3day ichi cloud? Will it breach the big resistance zones of 700-730 and then remain on top of that cloud? Or is this simply the last of the bear market rallies, and will we see the same downward bias as this rally unwinds, potentially bouncing down on top of the triangle that was resistance before?
Personally, I think that the expectations of a perfect repeat of the November rally within the 239 day cycle (thus reaching $4000+ levels by the end of July) are overblown. There are simply too many people expecting such a repeat performance, and so yes, at first it's a self-fulfilling prophecy -- but it's also an opportunity for market makers to corral the schools of bull-fish into a perfect trap of their own making. I think a new ATH rally will come, but much later.
When everyone starts expecting the rally, it's too obvious, and it usually causes the most pain. November was a surprise for everyone, and the panic buying happened because nobody really knew where it would end. In this case, the widespread charts of the next bubble are so mainstream they could kill a hipster with one glance.
I do think we could have a strong rally past the 700 zone, and it could possibly breach the november ATH -- but it will likely fall short of the $4-5K that everyone is salivating over. When expectations become so common, they often collapse on themselves. And don't forget -- China hasn't resolved a single thing with their exchanges. PBOC has yet to make *any* clarifications on how such exchanges will be allowed to proceed. They could see another bubble forming and decide to smack it down, as right now the exchanges are basically circumventing their directives. China leadership doesn't like to be embarassed...
Comments
SebastianofMoon
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If everyone expects something to happen, it probably will happen. Simply rule of mass-psychology.
Also, the influence of the willy bot on the price is over-estimated. All this makes very bullish. A new rally is totally possible.
ronfkingswanson
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Yes, mass expectations become self-fulfilling -- at the start -- but they have a way of running out of steam early as everyone looks around and says "I thought you were going to the moon! - no, I thought *you* were going to the moon!"... but the buying power runs out before the prophecy can be completed
oaksacorn
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Fundamental aspects continue to increase the btc base. The rate of adoption is actually surprising me and the potential numbers are profound. The numbers are profound regardless of what the PBOC thinks or does. It makes btc a hot potato. There are still plenty of bears in the woods. Everyday that goes by, it gets easier to short btc on a leveraged basis. Making money from the short side has dominated more of the time component since btc's inception than longs. This combined with the fundamental upside potential leads me to feel that the thick ichi will become support. Conceptually, from an algorithmic standpoint, there are plenty of Willy bots waiting on the sidelines. So Willy is nilly from a price increase standpoint. Good technical traders must always keep the fundamental numbers as this is what defines the true mean.
JishukuUkuhsij
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Don't forget that now we don't have Mt.Gox and the Willy bot buying up coins with fake dollars, and thus pushing up the price. I think that this is a good thing; because it means that the current price action is more natural. But I also think that it means a more shallow rally this time around... and it could possibly invalidate the 234 day cycle theory completely, and much of the previous chart analysis.
Also, the influence of the willy bot on the price is over-estimated. All this makes very bullish. A new rally is totally possible.