The Bitcoin cycle is divided into three stages; a bull market, a bear market, and an accumulation period. Every 4 years, a new cycle begins when the (BTC) rewards for miners (those who verify transactions by unlocking new blocks) are cut in half, hence unleashing a supply shock in the face of rising demand that jump starts a bull market, historically speaking. So far, Bitcoin has experienced three halvings:
• 30th November 2012
• 9th July 2016
• 11th May 2020
According to the trend, the length of bull markets have increased whilst the length of bear markets have gradually decreased. Bear markets tend to last for over a year after a blow-off bull market top, after which a period of sideways consolidation begins - an accumulation period that is most optimal for investors to dollar cost average (DCA) into the market, in anticipation of an upcoming bull run.
With regards to the 2021 bull market, a blow-off bull market top can be predicted to occur some time between December 2021 and March 2022, taking into consideration the 4 year cycle trend, as well as the lengthening cycles trend. Major mid bull run corrections have also been a key observation in every bull market including the current one, which has shaken off hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, arising fears of a potential bear market. The upcoming bear market could be predicted to bottom at around $45,000-$60,000, according to long term trend lines.