It looks like BTC might try another leg down to Fib 618 @9200, which most likely will bounce the price action back in the descending broadening channel. (Channel's volume signature does not look right to me on Finex but CME gives much more orderly look of the whole situation). This price action can also be considered as test of a golden cross on daily made by SMAs. The overall sentiment is still bullish but in the immediate term, I would consider a long entry in 9200 area because of the confluence with a major fib level. Please to consider that we have formed a daily lower low at this point, and while I don’t necessarily consider this as a change of behaviour, I would still have a SHORT bias in the immediate term and will look to open a long position after the bounce. >>>To be clear, I am not shorting this market, however, daily RSI read of 40 will certainly change my outlook on the macro health of the trend. Weekly RSI is about to test 21EMA. Usually this provides a phenomenal long opportunity which can be easily invalidated if the EMA is lost. This being said we still have 3 days more to go until the weekly close and I personally don’t want to front-run the market before it is due. If I have to put the number on it I would say that retest will take place at 8450 level, but this move most likely will be a swift and fast. I could be wrong altogether, and we might reverse from here all the way to 9850 area. I would consider Short idea invalidated if we close a 4H candle above 9650. Happy trading and stay safe. Cheers Archie
Hey Archie, we already did test 9200, I got in long from there when we bounced.
akublashvili
⋅
@SPINKICK, nicely done! From more recent price action I'd conclude that we will see 9850 in the immediate term (4-to 8 hours) and then we have to reassess. Perhaps we can carry on this bounce all the way to the top side of the falling channel.
SPINKICK
⋅
@akublashvili, Thanks! Broken clocks are right twice per day :)
I think you are right, i have a target set for around 9850, im hoping it hits 9950 or so... I have a sl set for about 9450