BTC again entering the Ichimoku cloud which although seems to be weakening, the thickness strength & 200MA are adding pressure downwards towards the path of least resistance, so without Volume (Both 24hr BTC/MC 33% drop and counting) trader's wont be likely to have the price action to break the cloud.
Ichimoku appears to be consolidating sideways so its quite conceivable the support crossover will be the most likely position for the reversal trend upwards, not to say attempts to break the cloud wont be made before this point but they will require Volume, large price action due to level of resistances. There is evidence of a herd (Korean Alts, new announcements, social trends) so a possible push through Fibonacci (0.618), although the likelihood is it will be rejected without purposeful price action.
Take notice of the trend line with the 200EMA as support below to ramp up volume and push through Fibonacci (0.618) up towards the physiological $10000
Flat top of the Cloud shows large resistance $11700, $12500 & again at $13000, shorts will occur, don't get caught, accounting for this it seems quite a journey ahead.
Buyer seem to have control atm but short term supports has the price encircled within range of $8800 - $9200. The bullish signal of the price making a clear break through of the cloud of resistance will be the beginning of the long awaited uptrend should begin.
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Ichimoku appears to be consolidating sideways so its quite conceivable the support crossover will be the most likely position for the reversal trend upwards, not to say attempts to break the cloud wont be made before this point but they will require Volume, large price action due to level of resistances. There is evidence of a herd (Korean Alts, new announcements, social trends) so a possible push through Fibonacci (0.618), although the likelihood is it will be rejected without purposeful price action.
Take notice of the trend line with the 200EMA as support below to ramp up volume and push through Fibonacci (0.618) up towards the physiological $10000
Flat top of the Cloud shows large resistance $11700, $12500 & again at $13000, shorts will occur, don't get caught, accounting for this it seems quite a journey ahead.
Buyer seem to have control atm but short term supports has the price encircled within range of $8800 - $9200. The bullish signal of the price making a clear break through of the cloud of resistance will be the beginning of the long awaited uptrend should begin.
BTC is seeing some tough times , so I should write this:
***Education Purposes only***
Comment:
Resistance at the retracement Fibn0.618 with the psychology $10000 deterring any further push upwards until closing above this level. 24HR Volume levels not seen since the bottom of the crash in Jan/Feb. it seems volume of >7Bln is being used with large price action at critical resistance points so be wary of 24HR volumes <7Bln
BTC/USDT parring volume tops most exchanges along with BTC dominance dropping could speculate sediment is ready to give breakout possibility, it would most likely result in creating a channel from trend line breaks (black line) & trend line (blue) or lower suppport (green) as price moving away from 200MA increasing chance of a pullback.
Notice a drop of Seknou (Ichimoku cloud green boundary line) out of the Alternate Route, denoted by a Blue Square,, this will increase the resistance clouds strength within the time-span of june.
BTC/USDT parring volume tops most exchanges along with BTC dominance dropping could speculate sediment is ready to give breakout possibility, it would most likely result in creating a channel from trend line breaks (black line) & trend line (blue) or lower suppport (green) as price moving away from 200MA increasing chance of a pullback.
Notice a drop of Seknou (Ichimoku cloud green boundary line) out of the Alternate Route, denoted by a Blue Square,, this will increase the resistance clouds strength within the time-span of june.
Comment:
1HR Chart, same settings. Lets see how much BTC respects Ichimoku in current environment.
Comment:
Not that much....support at bottom of wedge with 200MA (as spoken about previous, that large volume is needed historically to break this indicator.
Ichimoku weakening adding pressure to the downside.
Ichimoku weakening adding pressure to the downside.
Comment:
Few things:
- Rise out of the falling wedge as discussed then profit taking as technical indicators showed little chance of breaking back into the green upward channel which is now acting as resistance. Trader/s who initialised the price rise now covering short.
- Large volume to break 200MA bouncing off the trend line again now acting as resistance.
- Seknou (Ichimoku cloud resistance red line) will limit price push above $9400 and result in sideways movement, most likely retreating to trend line which is natural correction due to the previous sharp price rise & layered resistance
- Volume drop initalised when 24HR volume stagnated at 7Bln, which it still is now, will need 8Bln+ to minimise risk & reverse price action.
- Daily Ichimoku Alternate Route still in play although evolving slightly (Seknou moving out of blue arc) bringing the overall breakout valve lower but will still result in upwards trend reversal :)
- Rise out of the falling wedge as discussed then profit taking as technical indicators showed little chance of breaking back into the green upward channel which is now acting as resistance. Trader/s who initialised the price rise now covering short.
- Large volume to break 200MA bouncing off the trend line again now acting as resistance.
- Seknou (Ichimoku cloud resistance red line) will limit price push above $9400 and result in sideways movement, most likely retreating to trend line which is natural correction due to the previous sharp price rise & layered resistance
- Volume drop initalised when 24HR volume stagnated at 7Bln, which it still is now, will need 8Bln+ to minimise risk & reverse price action.
- Daily Ichimoku Alternate Route still in play although evolving slightly (Seknou moving out of blue arc) bringing the overall breakout valve lower but will still result in upwards trend reversal :)
Comment:
Flat Tops/Bottoms showing support levels to watch, with $9200 being the strongest.
Comment:
Seknou (Ichimoku cloud Boundary) is resisting re-entry into cloud which also forming Bear flag on 1HR chart.
Large resistance layers forming under may reduce exit flag pole size.
Will be interesting to see again, the price reaction to resistance cloud as currently formation looking possible.
Large resistance layers forming under may reduce exit flag pole size.
Will be interesting to see again, the price reaction to resistance cloud as currently formation looking possible.
Comment:
Thats the lower Bear Flag trend-line breaking, this will trigger resumption of downtrend the length of the leg of the pole
should bounce slightly early at $9200
should bounce slightly early at $9200
Comment:
Bulls attempt to stop fall showcased by 50% retraction of previous candlestick, Bitfinex order book has large Buy Walls @$9250, as long as no capitulation of buyers, price lows will be limited to/by supports.
Comment:
BTC price rise being resisted by the 200EMA which requires significant price action to break as shown 1day ago.
Bitfinex Orders showing consistent sell walls, adding risk to price rise without volume/momentum, the possible confirmation of a break and close above 200EMA would most likely be attempted at the crossover of Ichimoku Seknou cloud crossover circled in black.
Bitfinex Orders showing consistent sell walls, adding risk to price rise without volume/momentum, the possible confirmation of a break and close above 200EMA would most likely be attempted at the crossover of Ichimoku Seknou cloud crossover circled in black.
Comment:
Could add validity to 200EMA break. MACD momentum positive although heading bearish direction, RSI 45 curving downwards leading to bottom of RHS shoulder...rise will need confirmation before completion above neck line.
Comment:
Following the trend, 24HR BTC volume dropping, 200EMA squeezing price lower, RSI just under overbought.
Comment:
4HR Chart : Ichimoku resistance cloud although heading downwards, forcing price lower, is weakening (black circle) along with RSI oversold, show limit of drop should be within original "ichimoku alternate route"
Sideways movement with decreasing candlesticks/volume/wicks seems to suggest indecision & may be vulnerable to large price action, I mean large short squeezing helped us rise but $9500 closing will require something else. BTC seems to be quite resilient & positive atm, at least compared to previous weeks/months however indicators are pointing downwards without lead in price.
Quick rundown on indicators:
Volume - Still slightly above average but word of warning, volume is being
manipulated by wash-tradings on the less scrupulous exchanges so 24hr BTC
needs micro management by ways of separating exchange volumes, USDT
pairings and previous attempts around this level (Circled in black)
MACD - Bearish but peaking at March's high when attempted breakout failed.
RSI/Stoch - Under that 60, dipping down, where 45-50 in these conditions could
lead to slight downturn although as before, the positive aspect of the
overbought line being fluid, its seems to stay there for period of time as we have
seen all April.
MA - Historically to break the 200EMA, large volume is needed & as shown EMA is
aligning within the $8800 range, Short positions are relative low but would need
some shakeout to achieve volume.