Next 2-3 months will be pivotal for BTC and crypto in general
The next few months are going to be pivotal for BTC and the crypto markets in general.
For BTC, we have a confluence of:
White Line: 0.618 retracement measured from Jan 2015 low to Dec 2018 high
Red Line: DAILY 200 SMA
So far there is a nice INTRADAY (Feb2, 2018) reaction to this level... so far.
Keep an eye on the weekly and monthly charts... if BTC does not close below this level on the weekly or monthly charts, this is good for BTC and the whole crypto market in general.
HOWEVER...
If there is a WEEKLY close below this level, BTC is likely to move to the September consolidation range (3-5K).
If there is MONTHLY close below this confluence level, there is a near 100% chance that the 3-5K range will be hit. Actually, if there is a monthly close below this level, it will probably go to the May August consolidation range (1.7-3K). If this happens, BTC is going to take a long time to recover... like probably over 2 years before new highs are made.
What this scenario will mean for the crypto markets in general will depend on the ability of ETH to replace BTC as the cryptocurrency 'bellweather'... a process that already 'feels' like it is underway IMHO. If this transition can happen, then BTC plummeting will not be a big deal. If the transition never really occurs, then the entire crypto market will languish for 1-3 years.
Hopefully this level will hold.
For BTC, we have a confluence of:
White Line: 0.618 retracement measured from Jan 2015 low to Dec 2018 high
Red Line: DAILY 200 SMA
So far there is a nice INTRADAY (Feb2, 2018) reaction to this level... so far.
Keep an eye on the weekly and monthly charts... if BTC does not close below this level on the weekly or monthly charts, this is good for BTC and the whole crypto market in general.
HOWEVER...
If there is a WEEKLY close below this level, BTC is likely to move to the September consolidation range (3-5K).
If there is MONTHLY close below this confluence level, there is a near 100% chance that the 3-5K range will be hit. Actually, if there is a monthly close below this level, it will probably go to the May August consolidation range (1.7-3K). If this happens, BTC is going to take a long time to recover... like probably over 2 years before new highs are made.
What this scenario will mean for the crypto markets in general will depend on the ability of ETH to replace BTC as the cryptocurrency 'bellweather'... a process that already 'feels' like it is underway IMHO. If this transition can happen, then BTC plummeting will not be a big deal. If the transition never really occurs, then the entire crypto market will languish for 1-3 years.
Hopefully this level will hold.
As I stated in my original comment, a weekly close below this level is bad. A monthly close below this level will put BTC and possibly the entire crypto market on ice for at least a year... maybe 2. The psychological impact will be pretty big if this happens and, though it will probably recover eventually, it will not recover quickly.