A lot of talk is being made lately about whether Bitcoin has made its peak and is entering a new Bea Cycle or not. In a previous long-term article, I've introduced the concept of how BTC behaves when new ATH is made without previously hitting the former Cycle Peak. On today's publication I plot alongside those 'Triangles' idea the 2Y MA Multiplier indicator in order to more efficiently illustrate why having a Cycle Peak already is not likely.
As you see on the chart, the time-frame is the 1W (weekly) but the MA periods shown vary. Starting with the bold, the green line represents the 2Y MA while the red one displays the 2Y MA Multiplier X5. The orange line is the MA200 on the 1D time-frame while the blue is the MA20 on the 1M time-frame.
As you realize, the 1M MA20 follows the 2Y MA quite closely. Historically, every dip below the 2Y MA has been a buy opportunity and the good news is that this has risen significantly to the 28650 level currently. The 2Y MA50, which is the focal point of this analysis typically raises a flag of a Cycle Peak formation when it breaks. In February 2021, the price got rejected just below that level, which historically indicates that the current Cycle hasn't peaked yet.
At the same time, the 1D MA200 and the 1M MA20 have started to converge. Every time that happened, BTCUSD started an aggressive rally shortly after. It is very probable that we are on the last consolidation phase (blue Triangle) before the last parabolic rally of the Cycle (which I've illustrated on numerous ideas before) that will eventually break above the 2Y MA x5 Multiplier and form the Cycle Peak.
Do you agree with this? Are you waiting for the 2Y MA x5 before starting to call for a top and sell? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Always a great analysis unlike any others. Your charts have kept me focused on the larger picture and have kept me from panic selling. Thanks for all you do.
The upper right side of your chart shows one triangle area in pink and a smaller most recent one in blue. If this fractal continues to play out as it is then it's likely to see a decent dip before the takeoff as was seen on March 2020. That's the buy opp I've been hunting down and waiting for, and I think it will be here in January. It's large macro maps like these that really put things into perspective. Nice work!
TheDicDoc
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@cryptospawn, yea i agree, the yellow 200MA 1 day is flattening like 2014 and 2017, i guess we will wait to see how it plays out, maybe 50/50?
CatTrap
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@TheDicDoc, 200 MA nup, try the 300 MA, this shake out is far from over
BizzarTrading
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We will dip as March 20 cause you are hoping and waiting to buy cheap? Sources: Trust me bruh!
cryptospawn
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@BizzarTrading, restructure your sentence bruh. I'm hoping to buy cheap should it dip as it did March 20. I don't move markets. I just trade them as best I can.