BTC in bearish cycle

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
With breaking the support level at 9.000$, (fib retracement 23.6% and 2. strong swing trendline and 3. the turning point of the last swing (motive wave 4 - 5)) BTC has broken the last upwards trend and entered a new bearish cycle.

First short term bottom could be swing trend line at 7.360$ but if breaking this level we have to expect prices around 6.000$ - which was the start of the rally in november 2017.

Even with this rapid downfall BTC stays above the long term trend (lower dotted line). This trend is far away and so BTC could have enough space to fall further. I have some hope, that BTC will turn on or above 6.000$. We´ll see.

RSI: weak - not oversold = negative
ADX: negative momentum is rising = confirming negative trend

buy: if BTC rises above the red arrow - trend line
stop: immediately

Mar 21
Mar 21
Comment: two possible directions from this point:
a) we continue in the bearish cycle (as mentioned above) (a-b-c)
b) we enter a new bullish cycle which could lead us to 15.000$ (1-2-3-4-5 green)

both are possible and I cannot match a higher probability for one of those

this analysis is invalid if BTC manages to break through resistance at 9.200$ and continues to 10.000$
In other cases I would take some profit before BTC goes to the last support - but only to re-invest on lower levels
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