As a Venture Capital investor, we often get pitched crypto projects. On a personal note my first Bitcoin investment was in 2011. What I am starting to see now from both an investor & trader's perspective is the institutional money is gearing up to align Bitcoin with its "investment Instrument" criteria.
As of last year, we saw Asset manager positions being added under 1,000 BTC per week on average between 500 & 700 from around the week and date of the 22nd of September. Reaching a buy climax in November.
This year from the 5th of Jan through to the 26th of Jan saw moves in and out being sporadic and some stability coming in from the start of February. However, to counter this what is interesting is that the Leveraged Funds were a little more active than they were towards the end of last year. 3.5k positions on average weekly being bought in the first 4 weeks and only 2.5k average in the last 4 weeks.
As for short positions held and traded - Leveraged funds were selling 9.1k Jan 5th, 9.6k Jan 12th, 9.1k Jan 19th and a dip down to selling only 8k at the end of Jan.
In layman terms - this means the Institutional buyers have open positions around $38,000, then $36,000 being the average price of long positions and a further dip to around $26,700 area for best value acquisitions.
This last week's data shows Asset Managers opened another 600 short positions and only 300 long, whilst Leveraged Funds opened 7,600 shorts and only 2,600 longs. This makes sense as 68% of current retail trades are open Bitcoin Long.
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
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As per the area mentioned in the comments below. Respectful of the value area (again)
Does it mean BTC is going down considering that there are more shorts positions opened now compared to the long positions?
Mayfair_Ventures
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@ungushi1971, It just means the institutional players are currently short not long. So the question really will be "do they have enough stake in the game, to make it move where they want" or is the market still speculative as a whole? fair value for a professional trader is now just above the $36,100 level and given we are closer to that than we are the last major high of 57k and change level. We might see a spike down before a major rally. on the flip of that 68% of retail on the major brokers are already long. Who has the control I guess.
Mayfair_Ventures
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@ungushi1971, the stochastic on the weekly is also overbought. So we might get a rally, drop, and then the main rally.
gunhesss
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Hmmmm. I am new to this so when overbought shouldnt it drop?
Mayfair_Ventures
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@gunhesss, yes, but as it's a weekly chart - you could easily see a day or two of it rise first. But yes in the general sense usually there's a drop if it spends too long being bought.
Yuriy_Bishko
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only up!
Mayfair_Ventures
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Very short-term potential move. Key levels playing the game.
Does it mean BTC is going down considering that there are more shorts positions opened now compared to the long positions?