This is a pretty bare bones trend analysis looking at the potential for a trend reversal of BTC -2.97% -3.26% in 2018.
This trend analysis looks at the parabolic bullrun in 2013 and the following bear market to try and predict when the 2018 bear trend will reverse. This analysis is based on these two primary observations...
1) The price point just before parabolic bull run in 2013 was established as support during trend reversal. In this analysis we assume the same will occur in 2018.
2) There is an 8 month horizontal accumulation zone after said price point is reached. We are assuming a similar accumulation zone will occur in 2018.
2013 Bull/Bear October 2013 - Parabolic bull run starts at ~$170 and goes to ~$1,000 by November 2013
November 2013 Bear run takes over. 2 year bear run ensues.
January 2015 $170 price point (price just before parabolic bull run) is found
8 Month very slow uptrend (accumulation) ensues.
August 2015 new bull run ensues.
2018 Bull/Bear November 2017 - Parabolic bull run starts at ~$5900 and goes to ~$20,000 by December 2017
December 2017 Bear run takes over. 6 month bear run ensues.
June 2018 $~$5900 price point (price just before parabolic bull run) is found.
Prediction: 8 Month very slow uptrend (accumulation) ensues.
Prediction: February 2019 new bull run ensues.
**This is a long term analysis. Another to consider which may completely throw off this trend analysis is the inverse correlation apparant between BTC -2.97% -3.26% and Gold 0.63% 0.60% / DXY -0.50% -0.49% . BTC -2.97% -3.26% and DXY -0.50% -0.49% may help predict swings in the BTC -2.97% -3.26% price over coming months. These inverse correlations warrant further analysis.
*Trade at own risk. I am not a professional trader.
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Revised accumulation zone <deleted>
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2013 revised with 2 zones
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And here we have 2018 with predicted zones
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Thinking about the differences between the 2013 run and 2018 run, one that stands out is the length of the bear run. In 2013 the length was about 24 months, in 2018 if this charting proves correct the bear run will have been 6 months.
So 75% longer bear run in 2013.
Let's assume with the faster bear run in 2018 that we will have a 75% faster accumulation period. This would make the accumulation zone two months instead of 7 or 8.
This would mean we are due for a bull run as opposed to accumulationg for a few months, and justifies some of the bull arguments that accumulation will take place faster than I have projected above.
However, I still feel accumulation will take longer, closer to another 3 months from here, because the market needs to cool off and is reaching a point of no longer being parabolic.
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Observing the slow upward accumulation. We will see if it holds and be prepared with shorts.
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If you longer in this range congratulations. I do think we will drop again before breaking 7k, but continue to trend up slowly for a bit. Keeping g a close eye on this slow uptrend which has continued to hold as predicted.
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Another drop down did occur as expected, finding support at 6400. The price is now pumping again, but I expect this to dump again. I think the whales are using this accumulation range as a way to shake out plebs while simultaneously accumulating for the next parabolic run. As you can see from this chart\/ the accumulation is continuing nicely, and even a bounce off 5900 will hold the upward trend since June
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As expecte, the price dumped again. We see that we are getting continued pump and dumps within the 5800-6800 range, but that that the range is holding. So far the accumulation zone is holding nicely. Feel free to play the long and short swings in this range, but keep tight stops as a large move is bound to happen eventually.
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Support found again at 6400 and pumping toward 6800 again. This range is proving very stable and a great place to play the swings! So play them and accumulate more!
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My Entry For Long Swing: 6430
My Entry for Short Swing: 6730 (assuming 6800 is rejected)
My Entry for Long on trend reversal 6830 (assuming 6800 breaks and retests at least once) 7430 (assuming 7400 retests at least once)
My Entries for Short on trend continuation 5830 5730
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Well friends, the horizontal accumulation is continuing to play out perfectly. If we are to continue in this range as expected, we should find rejection around 6800. Ready your shorts and watch carefully!
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Please view related idea "accumulation slow uptick" for a more zoomed in perspective. It is looking like the accumulation is still intact so long as 6000 holds.
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Target for another bounce is 6237
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We bounced almost perfectly on this when it was called /\. More swings plays available in this range, more up likely soon. Target 6730 for close
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Up we go, approaching target. So far the swing calls have been on point. Still expecting a strong bull run in February so stay tuned!
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We are at a crucial place here. Possible long entry but if we break below 6k its a good place to short!
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6000 broke and our bottom at 5739 has now broken as well. So we are now going short as this accumulation zone becomes invalidated. Happy traing in this bearish swing.
Completely agree... I believe good ETF news is imminent (if there is a delay, then the wording that goes with the delay will be positive). This will carry us towards BAKKT, and remember Coinbase+BlackRock, plus Nasdaq are in competition, they will not sit on their hands... Too much good news, some we might not even know about yet, that is why two insiders (Tom Lee and Michael Novogratz) can confidently state we are nearing the bottom, not looking at charts but actual market growth...
Ellionator
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@andre1crypto, we will see if this manifests. With the current market trend i would not say the odds are in our favour, but until 5800 breaks there is still hope that we are in the midst of accumulation before reversal!
andre1crypto
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@Ellionator, I completely understand the point from people (like yourself) who know TA and long-term trends more than I do, that BTC could go down more to follow the natural market cycles.
But I'm just wondering if the good news (which I know will be coming before end of year) won't short-circuit the drop, support prices enough to stay kindof level for long enough before the next up.
It is a completely different industry to 2014/2015.
Just recently there was news that Coinbase is expanding their NY office (called Coinbase Institutional) from 15 I think to 100, recruited from existing institutions. As mentioned in the previous comment, Coinbase is in competition with the upcoming BAKT, there will soon be an institutional first-mover frenzy about to happen to tie up the relationships before the money starts really flowing...
Also, both BAKT and Coinbase want to succeed in retail... Once people are adding some dollars each month to their 501 via BAKT, it is a hop and skip to purchase additional financial products from BAKT (or their financial advisor), and that is their end-game. Also, they are hoping millennials will drive their growth into mass-market usage in the US, and internationally. So ICE is looking at BAKT to grow their international footprint and we are talking big potential for them so they are not going to mess around, they are going to invest whatever it takes to promote crypto to retail and intermediaries.
Others, like Goldman Sachs, can't be caught flat-footed without a solution in 6 months when their clients start asking for 1% in BTC. I believe they are all trying to play catch-up to have a plan in place.
In summary, I'm wondering if the thirst to accumulate before all this s*** mentioned above hits the fan (and much more, known and unknown) won't be an opportunity for people with deep pockets to accumulate, and that it won't dip much before it is quietly bought up by some people with VERY DEEP pockets as it might never reach 6K again..
andre1crypto
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@Ellionator, It is almost as if this market has a FA divergence at the moment! Or is that "hidden" FA divergence?
Ellionator
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@andre1crypto, Thanks for your ideas. Please do not think that this charting means i have good TA knowledge. I am not a professional trader and this is just a macro trend analysis based on casual observation.
lamboluvr
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@andre1crypto, Michael Novogratz wants this be to bottom because he bought up hundreds of millions of dollars worth. He doesn't want this market to fall so he will tell people it's the bottom. He really knows it's not. But he will do all he can to try to convince novices that it is so HE can make money.
Ellionator
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@lamboluvr, Nobody knows what the bottom is until uptrend is confirmed, until then we are all guessing, and should be playing both ends of the market. Instead people complain about each other because they think this is some sort of football game where you pick sides.
andre1crypto
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@lamboluvr, definitely possible he is shilling without substance...
But he also has a reputation to protect, same as Tom Lee, without a reputation of getting calls right you won't get new clients.
I'm not going to pretend he gets all calls right but he publically called the top of LTC mid Dec 2017, and reportedly staggered sold BTC on the way up before it started going down. If it now dropped to 5K then his reputation is shot and it took real certainty to make that very public call.
My hunch is they know what is happening in the industry with institutions, also that big investors have started accumulating and because of that price won't drop below (or much below) 6K, so he could make that call publically. Currently the fear of a further drop is causing retail to sell into the hands of big investors. We'll have to see what happens...