I would say the answer is yes (sort of) ! We are playing with the same trend line. In my previous post in November I warned that Bitcoin would make a double top or extend slightly past the previous high to fake everyone into thinking we were heading to the moon. I thought 24000 was that point, I was wrong. I've adjusted and 28000 appears to be a nice fit. Getter done BULLS!
It respected the line, made a rough H/S..... Now we wait. It would be nice to go short but I don't trust any exchange except for bitstamp. Been through mtgox, btce, etc
Treewizard
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Ps... In my experience stops don't always work
Treewizard
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There's many ways to look at the same chart. I get the arguments for 400000 Bitcoin, I've been in and out since almost the beginning. I don't think we are heading into hyper inflation, I'm bearish almost everything right now, crypto looks the worst. The next month should be telling. Maybe even the next week
WorthAShot
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Nice. But if you keep adjusting your double top caution every time it fails, it doesn't really mean much. One day it will happen, though.
Treewizard
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@WorthAShot, one adjustment of 20%.... The downside is not worth the risk when you can flip a penny pump and dump for that in a day. Only my opinion of course
WorthAShot
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@Treewizard, I know. I've adjusted my forecasts lots of times. Everyone has to. I'd say 100k looks almost like a done deal at some point in 2021. Some institutional fund managers are even predicting between 300k and 400k before 2021 is finished. This would match the prior cycles. BTC has been repeating a 4-year cycle with near precision. Halvings in 2012, 2016, 2020, with the next halving expected in 2024. Peaks in 2013 and 2017, about 1.5 years after a halving. So, with such a reliable 4-year cycle, we should expect the next peak to be about 1.5 years after the last halving in May of 2020... which takes us to the last few months of 2021. So the BTC's next peak should come before the end of 2021 and could reach anywhere between say 200k to 400k. But after that, we can expect a downward slide after the peak and into the next halving in mid-2024, like has happened repeatedly before. So a structured selling strategy into the peak would be wise, perhaps selling a small fraction (maybe 1% for each full coin held) every 10k up starting at 200k. Then be ready to load up again at the next halving in mid-2024. After the halving of mid-2024, BTC should hit 1 million at its next peak toward the end of 2025.